Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) Fair Value 2026

CWGL · Beverages ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) trades at $4.20, versus a $5.73 median fair value across its 3 active models — 36.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CWGL
Price
$4.20
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: PWERM suggests +140.2% upside with 34% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $5.73, 36.5% above the current price of $4.20. Estimates range from $2.01 to $10.09. CWGL scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 32/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CWGL’s +36.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CWGL?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $5.73 +36.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.01 -52.1%
Option-Based · Medium Conviction
 $10.09 +140.2%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is CWGL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $2.01 to $10.09

CirclFi's 3 active models place Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) between $2.01 and $10.09 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $5.73 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CWGL, against a current price of $4.20.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$2.01median $5.73$10.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.01
Most bullish modelPWERM$10.09
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CWGL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CWGL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.73. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $4.20 (implied upside of +36.5%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 2 of 3 bullish models. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +140.2% (fair value: $10.09), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -52.1% ($2.01). The spread between these extremes — +192.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CWGL?

3 of 13 models are currently active for CWGL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CWGL is $5.73 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CWGL Rank in Beverages?

Among 1 Beverages stocks, CWGL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Beverages space, Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. competes in an environment where gross margin expansion often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is CWGL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CWGL a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. is rated at 7.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +192.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CWGL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CWGL's 3 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CWGL?

7 companies across all industries closest to CWGL’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

LGCLLucas GC LimitedQOC 7.3SGHTSight Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.3GDOTGreen Dot CorporationQOC 7.3CWSTCasella Waste Systems, Inc.QOC 7.3RYZRyerson Holding CorporationQOC 7.3AORTArtivion, Inc.QOC 7.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: LGCL · SGHT · GDOT · CWST · RYZ · AORT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.’s Valuation?

What is Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL)'s intrinsic value at $5.73 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $2.01 to $10.09. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CWGL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.20, 2 of 3 active models suggest CWGL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $5.73, 36.5% above the current price of $4.20 — a consensus view that CWGL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.'s business model in Beverages.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for CWGL?

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CWGL?

CirclFi analyzes CWGL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CWGL?

Of the 3 models currently active on CWGL, PWERM is the most bullish at $10.09 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.01. CirclFi's published fair value for CWGL is the median of that range, $5.73, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CWGL a value trap in 2026?

Crimson Wine Group, Ltd.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. (CWGL) has a median fair value of $5.73 — 36.5% above the current price of $4.20 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CWGL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CWGL valuation
  • Financial statements: Crimson Wine Group, Ltd. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001562151) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CWGL as of ; valuations recomputed .