Diageo plc (DEO) Fair Value 2026

DEO · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Diageo plc (DEO) trades at $84.78, versus a $106.41 median fair value across its 8 active models — 25.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $108.98.

Key Facts

Ticker
DEO
Price
$84.78
Quality Score
7.4/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +62.0% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Diageo plc (DEO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Diageo plc (DEO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $106.41, 25.5% above the current price of $84.78. Estimates range from $42.54 to $172.67. DEO scores 7.4/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. DEO’s +25.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Diageo plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DEO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($84.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $108.98 +28.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $72.02 -15.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $103.83 +22.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $137.35 +62.0%
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What Is DEO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $42.54 to $172.67

CirclFi's 8 active models place Diageo plc (DEO) between $42.54 and $172.67 per share, a spread of 122% of the median. The median of that range — $106.41 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DEO, against a current price of $84.78.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · RCMH-DCF
$42.54median $106.41$172.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$42.54
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$172.67
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DEO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DEO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Diageo plc (DEO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Diageo plc at $84.78. With an estimated intrinsic value of $106.41 and 5 of 8 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +25.5%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $172.67 (+103.7%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $42.54 (-49.8%). This +153.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Diageo plc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DEO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for DEO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DEO is $106.41 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $108.98 on its own, implying +28.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DEO Rank in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries?

Among 11 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, DEO ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.4 indicates above-average quality.

Diageo plc's positioning within the Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including private label penetration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DEO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DEO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Diageo plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diageo plc scores 7.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +153.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DEO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DEO's 8 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diageo plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks with 13-model coverage

CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits LtdQOC 6.9MGPIMGP Ingredients, Inc.QOC 6.8WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc.QOC 6.2SNDLSNDL Inc.QOC 6.1YHCLQR House Inc.QOC 4.8MDWKMDwerks, Inc.QOC 4.2AMSSAMASS Brands, Inc.QOC 3.2IBGInnovation Beverage Group LimitedQOC 2.4EPSMEpsium Enterprise LimitedQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: CWGL · AGCC · MGPI · WVVI · SNDL · YHC · MDWK · AMSS · IBG · EPSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DEO?

7 companies across all industries closest to DEO’s Quality of Company score of 7.4/10.

WKCWorld Kinect CorporationQOC 7.4CLBKColumbia Financial, Inc.QOC 7.4HGVHilton Grand Vacations Inc.QOC 7.4OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.QOC 7.4CGNTCognyte Software Ltd.QOC 7.4CNCCentene CorporationQOC 7.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WKC · CLBK · HGV · OCFC · CGNT · CNC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Diageo plc’s Valuation?

What is Diageo plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Diageo plc (DEO)'s intrinsic value at $106.41 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $42.54 to $172.67. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $108.98 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DEO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $84.78, 5 of 8 active models suggest DEO may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $106.41, 25.5% above the current price of $84.78 — a consensus view that DEO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diageo plc's business model in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.4 mean for DEO?

Diageo plc's QOC of 7.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DEO?

CirclFi analyzes DEO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DEO?

Of the 8 models currently active on DEO, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $172.67 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $42.54. CirclFi's published fair value for DEO is the median of that range, $106.41, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 122% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DEO a value trap in 2026?

Diageo plc's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Diageo plc (DEO) has a median fair value of $106.41 — 25.5% above the current price of $84.78 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DEO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DEO valuation
  • Financial statements: Diageo plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000835403) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DEO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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