Diageo plc (DEO) Fair Value 2026

DEO · Beverages ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-17, Diageo plc (DEO) trades at $85.48, approximately 218% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $26.86. QOC: 2.0/10. 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
DEO
Price
$85.48
Quality Score
2.0/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +147.3% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.0/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Diageo plc (DEO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Diageo plc (DEO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $45.82, 46.4% below the current price of $85.48. Estimates range from $2.15 to $221.46. DEO scores 2.0/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Diageo plc Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($85.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $26.86 -68.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $45.82 -46.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $38.20 -55.3%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $211.43 +147.3%

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What Is Diageo plc (DEO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diageo plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $82.40. Trading at $85.48, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -3.6%), as 8 of 13 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Dynamic NAV, places fair value at $221.46 (+159.1%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $2.15 (-97.5%). This +256.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Diageo plc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About DEO?

13 of 13 models are currently active for DEO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates DEO's intrinsic value at $26.86, implying -68.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DEO Rank in Beverages?

Among 17 Beverages stocks, DEO ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.

Diageo plc's positioning within the Beverages segment means that store traffic trends plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including private label penetration — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is DEO a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for DEO. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Diageo plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Diageo plc scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +256.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DEO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DEO's 13 active models, average confidence is 7%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Diageo plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Beverages stocks with 13-model coverage

COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.QOC 10.0KOCoca-Cola Company (The)QOC 9.2BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.QOC 8.5STZConstellation Brands, Inc.QOC 7.8PEPPepsico, Inc.QOC 7.8BRCCBRC Inc.QOC 6.8WVVIPWillamette Valley Vineyards, InQOC 6.6

Read investment analysis: COCO · KO · BUDA · KDP · STZ

Frequently Asked Questions About Diageo plc

What is Diageo plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Diageo plc (DEO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $26.86. The Quality of Company score is 2.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DEO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $85.48, 5 of 13 active models suggest DEO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $45.82, 46.4% below the current price of $85.48 — a consensus view that DEO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Diageo plc's business model in Beverages.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.0 mean for DEO?

Diageo plc's QOC of 2.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DEO?

CirclFi analyzes DEO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is DEO a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for DEO at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Diageo plc (DEO) has a median fair value of $45.82 — 46.4% below the current price of $85.48 — as of 2026-07-17.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DEO/ · Methodology

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