PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Fair Value 2026

PEP · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) trades at $139.72, versus a $132.75 median fair value across its 10 active models — 5.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $108.85.

Key Facts

Ticker
PEP
Price
$139.72
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $132.75, within 5.0% of the current price of $139.72. Estimates range from $50.49 to $301.60. PEP scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PEP’s -5.0% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy PepsiCo, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PEP?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($139.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $108.85 -22.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $101.48 -27.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $126.63 -9.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $50.49 -63.9%
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What Is PEP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $50.49 to $301.60

CirclFi's 10 active models place PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) between $50.49 and $301.60 per share, a spread of 189% of the median. The median of that range — $132.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PEP, against a current price of $139.72.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$50.49median $132.75$301.60
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$50.49
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$301.60
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PEP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PEP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, PepsiCo, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $132.75, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $139.72. With a median implied return of -5.0% across a split 3–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +179.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +115.9% (fair value: $301.60), while EROIC is the most conservative at -63.9% ($50.49). The spread between these extremes — +179.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PEP?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PEP. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PEP is $132.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $108.85 on its own, implying -22.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PEP Rank in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic?

Among 20 Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks, PEP ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places PEP in the top tier.

Within the Beverages - Non-Alcoholic space, PepsiCo, Inc. competes in an environment where customer lifetime value (CLV) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PEP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PEP a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for PepsiCo, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, PepsiCo, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +179.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PEP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PEP's 10 active models, average confidence is 56%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy PepsiCo, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Non-Alcoholic Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Beverages - Non-Alcoholic stocks with 13-model coverage

KDPKeurig Dr Pepper Inc.QOC 8.2MOJOEQUATOR Beverage CompanyQOC 7.2BUDABuda Juice, Inc.QOC 8.6ZVIAZevia PBCQOC 6.5FIZZNational Beverage Corp.QOC 8.6PRMBPrimo Brands CorporationQOC 6.0WTERThe Alkaline Water Company Inc.QOC 5.6CCEPCoca-Cola Europacific Partners PLCQOC 9.1COCOThe Vita Coco Company, Inc.QOC 8.8COKECoca-Cola Consolidated, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: KDP · MOJO · BUDA · ZVIA · FIZZ · PRMB · WTER · CCEP · COCO · COKE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PEP?

7 companies across all industries closest to PEP’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

UWHRUwharrie Capital CorpQOC 8.1SHELShell plcQOC 8.1SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyQOC 8.1PECOPhillips Edison & Company, Inc.QOC 8.1TMToyota Motor CorporationQOC 8.1TRSTTrustCo Bank Corp NYQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: UWHR · SHEL · SHW · PECO · TM · TRST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About PepsiCo, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is PepsiCo, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP)'s intrinsic value at $132.75 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $50.49 to $301.60. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $108.85 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PEP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $139.72, 4 of 10 active models suggest PEP may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $132.75, within 5.0% of the current price of $139.72 — a consensus view that PEP is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits PepsiCo, Inc.'s business model in Beverages - Non-Alcoholic.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for PEP?

PepsiCo, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PEP?

CirclFi analyzes PEP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PEP?

Of the 10 models currently active on PEP, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $301.60 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $50.49. CirclFi's published fair value for PEP is the median of that range, $132.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 189% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PEP a value trap in 2026?

PepsiCo, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) has a median fair value of $132.75 — within 5.0% of the current price of $139.72 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PEP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PEP valuation
  • Financial statements: PepsiCo, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000077476) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PEP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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