Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) Fair Value 2026

AGCC · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (38/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) trades at $14.85, versus a $0.40 median fair value across its 6 active models — 97.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 38/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.24.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGCC
Price
$14.85
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
38/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $0.40, 97.3% below the current price of $14.85. Estimates range from $0.24 to $0.68. AGCC scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 38/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AGCC’s -97.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AGCC?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.24 -98.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $0.40 -97.3%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $0.68 -95.4%
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What Is AGCC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $0.24 to $0.68

CirclFi's 6 active models place Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) between $0.24 and $0.68 per share, a spread of 108% of the median. The median of that range — $0.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AGCC, against a current price of $14.85.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · First Chicago
$0.24median $0.40$0.68
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.24
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$0.68
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AGCC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AGCC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's intrinsic value is estimated at $0.40. Trading at its current price of $14.85, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -97.3%.

What Do the Models Say About AGCC?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AGCC. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AGCC is $0.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.24 on its own, implying -98.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGCC Rank in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries?

Among 12 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, AGCC ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd, metrics like same-store sales growth (comps) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is AGCC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGCC a score of 38/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+2.9% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGCC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGCC's 6 active models, average confidence is 27%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks with 13-model coverage

DEODiageo plcQOC 7.4CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3MGPIMGP Ingredients, Inc.QOC 6.8WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc.QOC 6.2SNDLSNDL Inc.QOC 6.1YHCLQR House Inc.QOC 4.7MDWKMDwerks, Inc.QOC 4.2SBEVSplash Beverage Group IncQOC 4.0AMSSAMASS Brands, Inc.QOC 3.2IBGInnovation Beverage Group LimitedQOC 2.5EPSMEpsium Enterprise LimitedQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: DEO · CWGL · MGPI · WVVI · SNDL · YHC · MDWK · SBEV · AMSS · IBG · EPSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AGCC?

7 companies across all industries closest to AGCC’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

GMABGenmab A/SQOC 6.9STWDStarwood Property Trust, Inc.QOC 6.9GRFSGrifols, S.A.QOC 6.9CRSRCorsair Gaming, Inc.QOC 6.9HEHawaiian Electric Industries, Inc.QOC 6.9RGRSturm, Ruger & Company, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: GMAB · STWD · GRFS · CRSR · HE · RGR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd’s Valuation?

What is Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC)'s intrinsic value at $0.40 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.24 to $0.68. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.24 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGCC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.85, 0 of 6 active models suggest AGCC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $0.40, 97.3% below the current price of $14.85 — a consensus view that AGCC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's business model in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for AGCC?

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGCC?

CirclFi analyzes AGCC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AGCC?

Of the 6 models currently active on AGCC, First Chicago is the most bullish at $0.68 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.24. CirclFi's published fair value for AGCC is the median of that range, $0.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 108% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AGCC a value trap in 2026?

Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd's Value Trap score is 38/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd (AGCC) has a median fair value of $0.40 — 97.3% below the current price of $14.85 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AGCC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AGCC valuation
  • Financial statements: Agencia Comercial Spirits Ltd 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0002060016) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AGCC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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