MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) Fair Value 2026

MGPI · Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (43/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) trades at $16.85, versus a $33.71 median fair value across its 7 active models — 100.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 43/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $47.76.

Key Facts

Ticker
MGPI
Price
$16.85
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
43/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +183.4% upside with 67% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 43 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $33.71, 100.1% above the current price of $16.85. Estimates range from $2.83 to $47.76. MGPI scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 43/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. MGPI’s +100.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MGP Ingredients, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MGPI?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $47.76 +183.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.87 +59.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $33.71 +100.1%
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What Is MGPI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.83 to $47.76

CirclFi's 7 active models place MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) between $2.83 and $47.76 per share, a spread of 133% of the median. The median of that range — $33.71 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MGPI, against a current price of $16.85.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$2.83median $33.71$47.76
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.83
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$47.76
Model agreement6 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MGPI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MGPI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.71. At a current market price of $16.85, 6 of 7 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +100.1%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +183.4% (fair value: $47.76), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -83.2% ($2.83). The spread between these extremes — +266.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MGPI?

7 of 13 models are currently active for MGPI. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MGPI is $33.71 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $47.76 on its own, implying +183.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MGPI Rank in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries?

Among 12 Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks, MGPI ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a retail business, MGP Ingredients, Inc. operates in a sector where brand equity index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MGPI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MGPI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MGPI a score of 43/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for MGP Ingredients, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +266.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MGPI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MGPI's 7 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MGP Ingredients, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries stocks with 13-model coverage

DEODiageo plcQOC 7.4CWGLCrimson Wine Group, Ltd.QOC 7.3AGCCAgencia Comercial Spirits LtdQOC 6.9WVVIWillamette Valley Vineyards, Inc.QOC 6.2SNDLSNDL Inc.QOC 6.1YHCLQR House Inc.QOC 4.7MDWKMDwerks, Inc.QOC 4.2SBEVSplash Beverage Group IncQOC 4.0AMSSAMASS Brands, Inc.QOC 3.2IBGInnovation Beverage Group LimitedQOC 2.5EPSMEpsium Enterprise LimitedQOC 2.0

Read investment analysis: DEO · CWGL · AGCC · WVVI · SNDL · YHC · MDWK · SBEV · AMSS · IBG · EPSM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MGPI?

7 companies across all industries closest to MGPI’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

PHIPLDT Inc.QOC 6.8REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8SRESempraQOC 6.8VNDAVanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.8SGASaga Communications, Inc.QOC 6.8ELThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PHI · REI · SRE · VNDA · SGA · EL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About MGP Ingredients, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI)'s intrinsic value at $33.71 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.83 to $47.76. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $47.76 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MGPI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.85, 6 of 7 active models suggest MGPI may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $33.71, 100.1% above the current price of $16.85 — a consensus view that MGPI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s business model in Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for MGPI?

MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MGPI?

CirclFi analyzes MGPI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MGPI?

Of the 7 models currently active on MGPI, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $47.76 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.83. CirclFi's published fair value for MGPI is the median of that range, $33.71, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 133% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MGPI a value trap in 2026?

MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 43/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) has a median fair value of $33.71 — 100.1% above the current price of $16.85 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MGPI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MGPI valuation
  • Financial statements: MGP Ingredients, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000835011) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MGPI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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