MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) Fair Value 2026

MGPI · Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (25/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) trades at $17.23, approximately 35% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $26.71. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 25/100 (LOW). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MGPI
Price
$17.23
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
25/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +68.5% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (13/13) may reduce confidence

Is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) appears undervalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $24.39, 41.5% above the current price of $17.23. Estimates range from $1.06 to $54.74. MGPI scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 25/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MGP Ingredients, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $26.71 +55.0%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $29.04 +68.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Medium Conviction
 $25.94 +50.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $14.14 -17.9%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 9 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 13 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $22.34. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $17.23 (implied upside of +29.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 13 bullish models. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +217.7% (fair value: $54.74), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -93.9% ($1.06). The spread between these extremes — +311.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MGPI?

13 of 13 models are currently active for MGPI. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MGPI's intrinsic value at $26.71, implying +55.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MGPI Rank in Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages?

Among 2 Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages stocks, MGPI ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

As a retail business, MGP Ingredients, Inc. operates in a sector where brand equity index is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MGPI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MGPI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MGPI a score of 25/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for MGP Ingredients, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +311.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MGPI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MGPI's 13 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MGP Ingredients, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages stocks with 13-model coverage

EPSMEpsium Enterprise LimitedQOC 2.2

Read investment analysis: EPSM

Frequently Asked Questions About MGP Ingredients, Inc.

What is MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $26.71. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MGPI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.23, 9 of 13 active models suggest MGPI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $24.39, 41.5% above the current price of $17.23 — a consensus view that MGPI is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s business model in Wholesale-Beer, Wine & Distilled Alcoholic Beverages.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for MGPI?

MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MGPI?

CirclFi analyzes MGPI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MGPI a value trap in 2026?

MGP Ingredients, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 25/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, MGP Ingredients, Inc. (MGPI) has a median fair value of $24.39 — 41.5% above the current price of $17.23 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MGPI/ · Methodology

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 13 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on MGPI.

Unlock All 13 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access