The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Fair Value 2026

EL · Household & Personal Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) trades at $103.39, versus a $31.97 median fair value across its 10 active models — 69.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $28.37.

Key Facts

Ticker
EL
Price
$103.39
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $31.97, 69.1% below the current price of $103.39. Estimates range from $2.85 to $106.07. EL scores 6.8/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. EL’s -69.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Household & Personal Products sector median is -7.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give EL?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($103.39)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.37 -72.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.85 -97.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $31.37 -69.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $78.28 -24.3%
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What Is EL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $2.85 to $106.07

CirclFi's 10 active models place The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) between $2.85 and $106.07 per share, a spread of 323% of the median. The median of that range — $31.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for EL, against a current price of $103.39.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.85median $31.97$106.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$2.85
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$106.07
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for EL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on EL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $31.97, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $103.39. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-69.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +2.6% (fair value: $106.07), while EPV is the most conservative at -97.2% ($2.85). The spread between these extremes — +99.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About EL?

10 of 13 models are currently active for EL. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for EL is $31.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $28.37 on its own, implying -72.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does EL Rank in Household & Personal Products?

Among 35 Household & Personal Products stocks, EL ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

As a retail business, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. operates in a sector where gross margin expansion is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating EL should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is EL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns EL a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.8/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +99.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every EL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across EL's 10 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Household & Personal Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Household & Personal Products stocks with 13-model coverage

RAYRaytech Holding LimitedQOC 6.8HELEHelen of Troy LimitedQOC 6.6YSGYatsen Holding LimitedQOC 6.8MAGNMagnera CorporationQOC 6.6SLSNSolesence, Inc.QOC 6.8DQWSDSwiss, Inc.QOC 6.2WALDWaldencast plcQOC 5.7IPARInterparfums, Inc.QOC 9.3NUSNu Skin Enterprises, Inc.QOC 7.7PGThe Procter & Gamble CompanyQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: RAY · HELE · YSG · MAGN · SLSN · DQWS · WALD · IPAR · NUS · PG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to EL?

7 companies across all industries closest to EL’s Quality of Company score of 6.8/10.

VNDAVanda Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.8HZOMarineMax, Inc.QOC 6.8REIRing Energy, Inc.QOC 6.8RXORXO, Inc.QOC 6.8MGPIMGP Ingredients, Inc.QOC 6.8GOAIEva Live, Inc.QOC 6.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VNDA · HZO · REI · RXO · MGPI · GOAI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.’s Valuation?

What is The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL)'s intrinsic value at $31.97 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.85 to $106.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $28.37 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is EL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $103.39, 1 of 10 active models suggest EL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $31.97, 69.1% below the current price of $103.39 — a consensus view that EL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s business model in Household & Personal Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for EL?

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on EL?

CirclFi analyzes EL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on EL?

Of the 10 models currently active on EL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $106.07 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $2.85. CirclFi's published fair value for EL is the median of that range, $31.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 323% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is EL a value trap in 2026?

The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) has a median fair value of $31.97 — 69.1% below the current price of $103.39 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/EL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this EL valuation
  • Financial statements: The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001001250) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for EL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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