e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Fair Value 2026

ELF · Household & Personal Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) trades at $102.79, versus a $16.74 median fair value across its 9 active models — 83.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $13.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
ELF
Price
$102.79
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $16.74, 83.7% below the current price of $102.79. Estimates range from $1.24 to $77.41. ELF scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ELF’s -83.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Household & Personal Products sector median is -1.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ELF?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($102.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $13.68 -86.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.43 -83.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $25.50 -75.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.19 -96.9%
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What Is ELF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $1.24 to $77.41

CirclFi's 9 active models place e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) between $1.24 and $77.41 per share, a spread of 455% of the median. The median of that range — $16.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ELF, against a current price of $102.79.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.24median $16.74$77.41
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$1.24
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$77.41
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ELF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ELF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $16.74, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $102.79. With 9 out of 9 models flagging downside (-83.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $77.41 (-24.7%), versus ML-RIV at $1.24 (-98.8%). This +74.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ELF?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ELF. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ELF is $16.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $13.68 on its own, implying -86.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ELF Rank in Household & Personal Products?

Among 34 Household & Personal Products stocks, ELF ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places ELF in the top tier.

Within the Household & Personal Products space, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ELF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ELF a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +74.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ELF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ELF's 9 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Household & Personal Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Household & Personal Products stocks with 13-model coverage

ACUAcme United CorporationQOC 8.3UGUnited-Guardian, Inc.QOC 8.1CHDChurch & Dwight Co., Inc.QOC 8.4KMBKimberly-Clark CorporationQOC 8.0CLColgate-Palmolive CompanyQOC 8.4CLXThe Clorox CompanyQOC 7.9ODDOddity Tech Ltd.QOC 7.4HNSTThe Honest Company, Inc.QOC 6.1ADTIAdapti, Inc.QOC 3.2IPARInterparfums, Inc.QOC 9.3PGThe Procter & Gamble CompanyQOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: ACU · UG · CHD · KMB · CL · CLX · ODD · HNST · ADTI · IPAR · PG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ELF?

7 companies across all industries closest to ELF’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CCUCompañía Cervecerías Unidas S.A.QOC 8.2NGVTIngevity CorporationQOC 8.2SBFGSB Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.2TRGPTarga Resources Corp.QOC 8.2UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc.QOC 8.2GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CCU · NGVT · SBFG · TRGP · UTMD · GGAL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF)'s intrinsic value at $16.74 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $1.24 to $77.41. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $13.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ELF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $102.79, 0 of 9 active models suggest ELF may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $16.74, 83.7% below the current price of $102.79 — a consensus view that ELF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s business model in Household & Personal Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for ELF?

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ELF?

CirclFi analyzes ELF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ELF?

Of the 9 models currently active on ELF, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $77.41 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $1.24. CirclFi's published fair value for ELF is the median of that range, $16.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 455% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ELF a value trap in 2026?

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) has a median fair value of $16.74 — 83.7% below the current price of $102.79 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ELF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ELF valuation
  • Financial statements: e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001600033) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ELF as of ; valuations recomputed .

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