What Is e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.82, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $75.12. With 12 out of 12 models flagging downside (-74.9% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $67.16 (-10.6%), versus EPV at $1.25 (-98.3%). This +87.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About ELF?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ELF. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates ELF's intrinsic value at $7.43, implying -90.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ELF Rank in Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations?
Among 20 Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations stocks, ELF ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places ELF in the top tier.
Within the Perfumes, Cosmetics & Other Toilet Preparations space, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. competes in an environment where debt-to-EBITDAX often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is ELF a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ELF a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.7/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +87.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ELF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ELF's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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