Novanta Inc. (NOVT) Fair Value 2026

NOVT · Scientific & Technical Instruments ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (26/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Novanta Inc. (NOVT) trades at $146.22, versus a $48.79 median fair value across its 10 active models — 66.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 26/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $38.78.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOVT
Price
$146.22
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
26/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Novanta Inc. (NOVT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Novanta Inc. (NOVT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $48.79, 66.6% below the current price of $146.22. Estimates range from $10.09 to $150.95. NOVT scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 26/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. NOVT’s -66.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Scientific & Technical Instruments sector median is -45.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Novanta Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOVT?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($146.22)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $38.78 -73.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $28.41 -80.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $56.84 -61.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $131.68 -9.9%
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What Is NOVT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $10.09 to $150.95

CirclFi's 10 active models place Novanta Inc. (NOVT) between $10.09 and $150.95 per share, a spread of 289% of the median. The median of that range — $48.79 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOVT, against a current price of $146.22.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$10.09median $48.79$150.95
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$10.09
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$150.95
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOVT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOVT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Novanta Inc. (NOVT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Novanta Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $48.79, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $146.22. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-66.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $150.95 (+3.2%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $10.09 (-93.1%). This +96.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Novanta Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NOVT?

10 of 13 models are currently active for NOVT. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOVT is $48.79 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $38.78 on its own, implying -73.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOVT Rank in Scientific & Technical Instruments?

Among 41 Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks, NOVT ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places NOVT in the top tier.

Novanta Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NOVT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOVT a score of 26/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Novanta Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Novanta Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +96.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOVT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOVT's 10 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Novanta Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Scientific & Technical Instruments Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Scientific & Technical Instruments stocks with 13-model coverage

CGNXCognex CorporationQOC 8.3VNTVontier CorporationQOC 8.1ITRIItron, Inc.QOC 8.5TRMBTrimble Inc.QOC 8.1MLABMesa Laboratories, Inc.QOC 8.5FTVFortive CorporationQOC 8.0LCTCLifeloc Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.8FCUVFocus Universal Inc.QOC 5.1ACFNAcorn Energy, Inc.QOC 9.4BMIBadger Meter, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: CGNX · VNT · ITRI · TRMB · MLAB · FTV · LCTC · FCUV · ACFN · BMI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOVT?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOVT’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

ASCArdmore Shipping CorporationQOC 8.2CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2BVSBioventus Inc.QOC 8.2VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedQOC 8.2FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.QOC 8.2CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ASC · CVNA · BVS · VIPS · FERG · CPAY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Novanta Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Novanta Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Novanta Inc. (NOVT)'s intrinsic value at $48.79 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $10.09 to $150.95. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $38.78 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOVT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $146.22, 1 of 10 active models suggest NOVT may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $48.79, 66.6% below the current price of $146.22 — a consensus view that NOVT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Novanta Inc.'s business model in Scientific & Technical Instruments.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for NOVT?

Novanta Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOVT?

CirclFi analyzes NOVT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOVT?

Of the 10 models currently active on NOVT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $150.95 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $10.09. CirclFi's published fair value for NOVT is the median of that range, $48.79, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 289% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOVT a value trap in 2026?

Novanta Inc.'s Value Trap score is 26/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Novanta Inc. (NOVT) has a median fair value of $48.79 — 66.6% below the current price of $146.22 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOVT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOVT valuation
  • Financial statements: Novanta Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001076930) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOVT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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