Carvana Co. (CVNA) Fair Value 2026

CVNA · Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Carvana Co. (CVNA) trades at $74.09, versus a $12.13 median fair value across its 5 active models — 83.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $12.87.

Key Facts

Ticker
CVNA
Price
$74.09
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Carvana Co. (CVNA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $12.13, 83.6% below the current price of $74.09. Estimates range from $6.45 to $23.63. CVNA scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CVNA’s -83.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Carvana Co. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CVNA?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($74.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.87 -82.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.13 -83.6%
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What Is CVNA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $6.45 to $23.63

CirclFi's 5 active models place Carvana Co. (CVNA) between $6.45 and $23.63 per share, a spread of 142% of the median. The median of that range — $12.13 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CVNA, against a current price of $74.09.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$6.45median $12.13$23.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$6.45
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$23.63
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CVNA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CVNA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Carvana Co. (CVNA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carvana Co.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $12.13. Trading at its current price of $74.09, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -83.6%.

What Do the Models Say About CVNA?

5 of 13 models are currently active for CVNA. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CVNA is $12.13 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $12.87 on its own, implying -82.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CVNA Rank in Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations?

Among 2 Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations stocks, CVNA ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places CVNA in the top tier.

The Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer-facing company businesses. For Carvana Co., metrics like customer lifetime value (CLV) provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CVNA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CVNA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Carvana Co.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carvana Co. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+23.2% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CVNA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CVNA's 5 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Carvana Co. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations stocks with 13-model coverage

CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.9

Read investment analysis: CWH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CVNA?

7 companies across all industries closest to CVNA’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

FERGFerguson Enterprises Inc.QOC 8.2NOVTNovanta Inc.QOC 8.2ALNTAllient Inc.QOC 8.2VIPSVipshop Holdings LimitedQOC 8.2BVSBioventus Inc.QOC 8.2CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: FERG · NOVT · ALNT · VIPS · BVS · CPAY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Carvana Co.’s Valuation?

What is Carvana Co.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Carvana Co. (CVNA)'s intrinsic value at $12.13 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.45 to $23.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $12.87 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CVNA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $74.09, 0 of 5 active models suggest CVNA may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $12.13, 83.6% below the current price of $74.09 — a consensus view that CVNA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Carvana Co.'s business model in Retail-Auto Dealers & Gasoline Stations.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for CVNA?

Carvana Co.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CVNA?

CirclFi analyzes CVNA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CVNA?

Of the 5 models currently active on CVNA, First Chicago is the most bullish at $23.63 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $6.45. CirclFi's published fair value for CVNA is the median of that range, $12.13, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 142% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CVNA a value trap in 2026?

Carvana Co.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Carvana Co. (CVNA) has a median fair value of $12.13 — 83.6% below the current price of $74.09 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CVNA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CVNA valuation
  • Financial statements: Carvana Co. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001690820) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CVNA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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