Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Fair Value 2026

PAG · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) trades at $217.85, versus a $190.61 median fair value across its 12 active models — 12.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $190.57.

Key Facts

Ticker
PAG
Price
$217.85
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +101.7% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $190.61, 12.5% below the current price of $217.85. Estimates range from $107.34 to $439.35. PAG scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PAG’s -12.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -5.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PAG?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($217.85)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $190.57 -12.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $171.83 -21.1%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $190.65 -12.5%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $439.35 +101.7%
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What Is PAG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $107.34 to $439.35

CirclFi's 12 active models place Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) between $107.34 and $439.35 per share, a spread of 174% of the median. The median of that range — $190.61 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PAG, against a current price of $217.85.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$107.34median $190.61$439.35
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$107.34
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$439.35
Model agreement2 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PAG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PAG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $190.61. Trading at $217.85, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -12.5%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $439.35 (+101.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $107.34 (-50.7%). This +152.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About PAG?

12 of 13 models are currently active for PAG. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PAG is $190.61 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $190.57 on its own, implying -12.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PAG Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 22 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, PAG ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places PAG in the top tier.

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Auto & Truck Dealerships segment means that inventory days supply plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including emerging market demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is PAG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PAG a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Penske Automotive Group, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Penske Automotive Group, Inc. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +152.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PAG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PAG's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Penske Automotive Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1ANAutoNation, Inc.QOC 8.1CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0JZXNJiuzi Holdings, Inc.QOC 1.6SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.QOC 7.8NXBNextBoat Inc.QOC 6.5KXINKaixin HoldingsQOC 4.2

Read investment analysis: OPLN · AN · CARG · ABG · JZXN · SAH · GPI · NXB · KXIN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PAG?

7 companies across all industries closest to PAG’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

TREXTrex Company, Inc.QOC 8.1INFUInfuSystem Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1VNTVontier CorporationQOC 8.1JANLJanel CorporationQOC 8.1TKRThe Timken CompanyQOC 8.1CCSIConsensus Cloud Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TREX · INFU · VNT · JANL · TKR · CCSI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Penske Automotive Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG)'s intrinsic value at $190.61 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $107.34 to $439.35. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $190.57 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PAG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $217.85, 4 of 12 active models suggest PAG may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $190.61, 12.5% below the current price of $217.85 — a consensus view that PAG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for PAG?

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PAG?

CirclFi analyzes PAG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PAG?

Of the 12 models currently active on PAG, First Chicago is the most bullish at $439.35 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $107.34. CirclFi's published fair value for PAG is the median of that range, $190.61, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 174% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PAG a value trap in 2026?

Penske Automotive Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Penske Automotive Group, Inc. (PAG) has a median fair value of $190.61 — 12.5% below the current price of $217.85 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PAG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PAG valuation
  • Financial statements: Penske Automotive Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001019849) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PAG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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