Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) Fair Value 2026

LAD · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) trades at $371.04, versus a $539.31 median fair value across its 9 active models — 45.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
LAD
Price
$371.04
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +312.8% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $539.31, 45.4% above the current price of $371.04. Estimates range from $225.54 to $1531.73. LAD scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. LAD’s +45.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -5.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Lithia Motors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give LAD?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($371.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $538.77 +45.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $1531.73 +312.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $225.54 -39.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $343.55 -7.4%
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What Is LAD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $225.54 to $1531.73

CirclFi's 9 active models place Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) between $225.54 and $1531.73 per share, a spread of 242% of the median. The median of that range — $539.31 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for LAD, against a current price of $371.04.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$225.54median $539.31$1531.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$225.54
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$1531.73
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for LAD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on LAD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Lithia Motors, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $539.31, suggesting a +45.4% median upside from the current price of $371.04. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $1,531.73 (+312.8%), versus EROIC at $225.54 (-39.2%). This +352.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About LAD?

9 of 13 models are currently active for LAD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for LAD is $539.31 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does LAD Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 22 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, LAD ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Auto & Truck Dealerships space, Lithia Motors, Inc. competes in an environment where EBIT per unit often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is LAD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns LAD a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Lithia Motors, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Lithia Motors, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.8/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +352.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every LAD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across LAD's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Lithia Motors, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.QOC 7.8ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0VVVValvoline Inc.QOC 7.8ANAutoNation, Inc.QOC 8.1BGSIBoyd Group Services Inc.QOC 7.6KMXCarMax, Inc.QOC 6.9RDNWRideNow Group, Inc.QOC 5.7CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: SAH · GPI · ABG · VVV · AN · BGSI · KMX · RDNW · CARG · OPLN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to LAD?

7 companies across all industries closest to LAD’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

EMYBEmbassy Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8KRYSKrystal Biotech, Inc.QOC 7.8FIGRFigure Technology Solutions, Inc.QOC 7.8MYEMyers Industries, Inc.QOC 7.8TFCTruist Financial CorporationQOC 7.8AOXYAdvanced Oxygen Technologies, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EMYB · KRYS · FIGR · MYE · TFC · AOXY · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Lithia Motors, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Lithia Motors, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD)'s intrinsic value at $539.31 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $225.54 to $1531.73. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is LAD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $371.04, 6 of 9 active models suggest LAD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $539.31, 45.4% above the current price of $371.04 — a consensus view that LAD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Lithia Motors, Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for LAD?

Lithia Motors, Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on LAD?

CirclFi analyzes LAD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on LAD?

Of the 9 models currently active on LAD, First Chicago is the most bullish at $1531.73 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $225.54. CirclFi's published fair value for LAD is the median of that range, $539.31, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 242% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is LAD a value trap in 2026?

Lithia Motors, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Lithia Motors, Inc. (LAD) has a median fair value of $539.31 — 45.4% above the current price of $371.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/LAD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this LAD valuation
  • Financial statements: Lithia Motors, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001023128) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for LAD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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