AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Fair Value 2026

AN · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, AutoNation, Inc. (AN) trades at $200.09, versus a $364.94 median fair value across its 10 active models — 82.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AN
Price
$200.09
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +102.4% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AutoNation, Inc. (AN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $364.94, 82.4% above the current price of $200.09. Estimates range from $154.26 to $581.26. AN scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. AN’s +82.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -3.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AutoNation, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($200.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $337.92 +68.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $329.82 +64.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $164.11 -18.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $404.91 +102.4%
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What Is AN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $154.26 to $581.26

CirclFi's 10 active models place AutoNation, Inc. (AN) between $154.26 and $581.26 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $364.94 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AN, against a current price of $200.09.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$154.26median $364.94$581.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$154.26
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$581.26
Model agreement8 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AutoNation, Inc. (AN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AutoNation, Inc. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $200.09. Based on our 13-model framework, AutoNation, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $364.94 — representing +82.4% implied upside — with 8 out of 10 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $581.26 (+190.5%), versus Dynamic NAV at $154.26 (-22.9%). This +213.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About AN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AN. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AN is $364.94 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AN Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 24 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, AN ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places AN in the top tier.

Within the Auto & Truck Dealerships space, AutoNation, Inc. competes in an environment where EBIT per unit often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is AN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for AutoNation, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, AutoNation, Inc. is rated at 8.1/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +213.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AN's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AutoNation, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.1ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1LADLithia Motors, Inc.QOC 7.8BGSIBoyd Group Services Inc.QOC 7.6UCARU Power LimitedQOC 6.1AZIAutozi Internet Technology (Global) Ltd.QOC 2.3CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: PAG · ABG · CVNA · SAH · OPLN · LAD · BGSI · UCAR · AZI · CARG

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AN?

7 companies across all industries closest to AN’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

COSOCoastalSouth Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1DELLDell Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1BSETBassett Furniture Industries, IncorporatedQOC 8.1PGCPeapack-Gladstone Financial CorporationQOC 8.1KRCKilroy Realty CorporationQOC 8.1EDUNew Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: COSO · DELL · BSET · PGC · KRC · EDU · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About AutoNation, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is AutoNation, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AutoNation, Inc. (AN)'s intrinsic value at $364.94 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $154.26 to $581.26. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $200.09, 8 of 10 active models suggest AN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $364.94, 82.4% above the current price of $200.09 — a consensus view that AN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AutoNation, Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for AN?

AutoNation, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AN?

CirclFi analyzes AN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AN?

Of the 10 models currently active on AN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $581.26 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $154.26. CirclFi's published fair value for AN is the median of that range, $364.94, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AN a value trap in 2026?

AutoNation, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AutoNation, Inc. (AN) has a median fair value of $364.94 — 82.4% above the current price of $200.09 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AN valuation
  • Financial statements: AutoNation, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000350698) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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