ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) Fair Value 2026

ACVA · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (53/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) trades at $7.16, versus a $4.08 median fair value across its 5 active models — 43.1% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 53/100 (WARN). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.71.

Key Facts

Ticker
ACVA
Price
$7.16
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
53/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 53 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $4.08, 43.1% below the current price of $7.16. Estimates range from $2.71 to $6.72. ACVA scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 53/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ACVA’s -43.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -3.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ACV Auctions Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ACVA?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.71 -62.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.08 -43.1%
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What Is ACVA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $2.71 to $6.72

CirclFi's 5 active models place ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) between $2.71 and $6.72 per share, a spread of 98% of the median. The median of that range — $4.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ACVA, against a current price of $7.16.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$2.71median $4.08$6.72
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$2.71
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$6.72
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ACVA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ACV Auctions Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.08, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $7.16. With 5 out of 5 models flagging downside (-43.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at -6.1% (fair value: $6.72), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -62.2% ($2.71). The spread between these extremes — +56.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About ACVA?

5 of 13 models are currently active for ACVA. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ACVA is $4.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.71 on its own, implying -62.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ACVA Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 24 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, ACVA ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Auto & Truck Dealerships space, ACV Auctions Inc. competes in an environment where fleet electrification pace often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ACVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACVA a score of 53/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for ACV Auctions Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, ACV Auctions Inc. is rated at 6.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +56.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ACVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ACVA's 5 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ACV Auctions Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

NXBNextBoat Inc.QOC 6.5UCARU Power LimitedQOC 6.1CRMTAmerica's Car-Mart, Inc.QOC 6.5UXINUxin LimitedQOC 6.0KMXCarMax, Inc.QOC 6.9CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8SDASunCar Technology Group Inc.QOC 2.9PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.1VVVValvoline Inc.QOC 7.8CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: NXB · UCAR · CRMT · UXIN · KMX · CWH · SDA · PAG · VVV · CARG · OPLN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ACVA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ACVA’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

SPWHSportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.3NNUPNocopi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 6.3LGNLegence Corp.QOC 6.3CVRChicago Rivet & Machine Co.QOC 6.3GELGenesis Energy, L.P.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SPWH · NNUP · GBDC · LGN · CVR · GEL · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About ACV Auctions Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ACV Auctions Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA)'s intrinsic value at $4.08 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.71 to $6.72. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.71 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ACVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.16, 0 of 5 active models suggest ACVA may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $4.08, 43.1% below the current price of $7.16 — a consensus view that ACVA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ACV Auctions Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for ACVA?

ACV Auctions Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ACVA?

CirclFi analyzes ACVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ACVA?

Of the 5 models currently active on ACVA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $6.72 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $2.71. CirclFi's published fair value for ACVA is the median of that range, $4.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 98% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ACVA a value trap in 2026?

ACV Auctions Inc.'s Value Trap score is 53/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, ACV Auctions Inc. (ACVA) has a median fair value of $4.08 — 43.1% below the current price of $7.16 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ACVA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ACVA valuation
  • Financial statements: ACV Auctions Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001637873) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ACVA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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