Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Fair Value 2026

VVV · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Valvoline Inc. (VVV) trades at $32.11, versus a $23.23 median fair value across its 8 active models — 27.6% below the current price. QOC: 7.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VVV
Price
$32.11
Quality Score
7.8/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +92.1% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Valvoline Inc. (VVV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $23.23, 27.6% below the current price of $32.11. Estimates range from $3.58 to $61.69. VVV scores 7.8/10 on fundamental quality and 5/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. VVV’s -27.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -3.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Valvoline Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VVV?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($32.11)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.42 -83.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.56 -32.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $61.69 +92.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.58 -88.9%
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What Is VVV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.58 to $61.69

CirclFi's 8 active models place Valvoline Inc. (VVV) between $3.58 and $61.69 per share, a spread of 250% of the median. The median of that range — $23.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VVV, against a current price of $32.11.

Low · EROICHigh · First Chicago
$3.58median $23.23$61.69
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.58
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$61.69
Model agreement2 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VVV. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VVV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Valvoline Inc. (VVV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Valvoline Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.23. Trading at its current price of $32.11, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -27.6%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $61.69 (+92.1%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $3.58 (-88.9%). This +181.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Valvoline Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VVV?

8 of 13 models are currently active for VVV. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VVV is $23.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VVV Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 24 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, VVV ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.8 indicates above-average quality.

Valvoline Inc.'s positioning within the Auto & Truck Dealerships segment means that EV mix percentage plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including electric vehicle transition — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is VVV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VVV a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Valvoline Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Valvoline Inc. scores 7.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +181.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VVV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VVV's 8 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Valvoline Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.QOC 7.8BGSIBoyd Group Services Inc.QOC 7.6LADLithia Motors, Inc.QOC 7.8DRVNDriven Brands Holdings Inc.QOC 6.9SAHSonic Automotive, Inc.QOC 8.0KMXCarMax, Inc.QOC 6.9ACVAACV Auctions Inc.QOC 6.3SDASunCar Technology Group Inc.QOC 2.9PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.1CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GPI · BGSI · LAD · DRVN · SAH · KMX · ACVA · SDA · PAG · CARG · OPLN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VVV?

7 companies across all industries closest to VVV’s Quality of Company score of 7.8/10.

EMBJEmbraer S.A.QOC 7.8PCRXPacira BioSciences, Inc.QOC 7.8FUSBFirst US Bancshares, Inc.QOC 7.8HIPOHippo Holdings Inc.QOC 7.8SLVMSylvamo CorporationQOC 7.8SNDRSchneider National, Inc.QOC 7.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EMBJ · PCRX · FUSB · HIPO · SLVM · SNDR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Valvoline Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Valvoline Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Valvoline Inc. (VVV)'s intrinsic value at $23.23 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.58 to $61.69. The Quality of Company score is 7.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VVV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $32.11, 2 of 8 active models suggest VVV may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $23.23, 27.6% below the current price of $32.11 — a consensus view that VVV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Valvoline Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.8 mean for VVV?

Valvoline Inc.'s QOC of 7.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VVV?

CirclFi analyzes VVV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VVV?

Of the 8 models currently active on VVV, First Chicago is the most bullish at $61.69 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.58. CirclFi's published fair value for VVV is the median of that range, $23.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 250% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VVV a value trap in 2026?

Valvoline Inc.'s Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Valvoline Inc. (VVV) has a median fair value of $23.23 — 27.6% below the current price of $32.11 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VVV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VVV valuation
  • Financial statements: Valvoline Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001674910) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VVV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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