Alico, Inc. (ALCO) Fair Value 2026

ALCO · Farm Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (45/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Alico, Inc. (ALCO) trades at $40.42, versus a $10.32 median fair value across its 8 active models — 74.5% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 45/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $8.00.

Key Facts

Ticker
ALCO
Price
$40.42
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
45/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 45 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Alico, Inc. (ALCO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Alico, Inc. (ALCO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $10.32, 74.5% below the current price of $40.42. Estimates range from $0.48 to $27.87. ALCO scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 45/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. ALCO’s -74.5% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Alico, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ALCO?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.00 -80.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.64 -68.7%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $6.96 -82.8%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.87 -31.0%
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What Is ALCO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $0.48 to $27.87

CirclFi's 8 active models place Alico, Inc. (ALCO) between $0.48 and $27.87 per share, a spread of 265% of the median. The median of that range — $10.32 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ALCO, against a current price of $40.42.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.48median $10.32$27.87
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.48
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$27.87
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ALCO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ALCO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Alico, Inc. (ALCO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Alico, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $10.32, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $40.42. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-74.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $27.87 (-31.0%), versus ML-RIV at $0.48 (-98.8%). This +67.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ALCO?

8 of 13 models are currently active for ALCO. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ALCO is $10.32 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $8.00 on its own, implying -80.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ALCO Rank in Farm Products?

Among 22 Farm Products stocks, ALCO ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Alico, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is ALCO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ALCO a score of 45/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Alico, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Alico, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.3/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +67.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ALCO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ALCO's 8 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Alico, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Farm Products stocks with 13-model coverage

LMNRLimoneira CompanyQOC 6.4LOCLLocal Bounti CorporationQOC 6.1TULPBloomia Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6MGNCMag Magna Corp.QOC 5.7LNDBrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades AgrícolasQOC 6.6PFAIPinnacle Food Group LimitedQOC 5.6AQBAquaBounty Technologies, Inc.QOC 4.6VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland CompanyQOC 7.5CALMCal-Maine Foods, Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: LMNR · LOCL · TULP · MGNC · LND · PFAI · AQB · VFF · ADM · CALM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ALCO?

7 companies across all industries closest to ALCO’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

BLCOBausch + Lomb CorporationQOC 6.3IQiQIYI, Inc.QOC 6.3SIFYSify Technologies LimitedQOC 6.3ORMPOramed Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 6.3AMPXAmprius Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3MAYSJ.W. Mays, Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BLCO · IQ · SIFY · ORMP · AMPX · MAYS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Alico, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Alico, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Alico, Inc. (ALCO)'s intrinsic value at $10.32 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.48 to $27.87. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $8.00 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ALCO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.42, 0 of 8 active models suggest ALCO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $10.32, 74.5% below the current price of $40.42 — a consensus view that ALCO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Alico, Inc.'s business model in Farm Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for ALCO?

Alico, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ALCO?

CirclFi analyzes ALCO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ALCO?

Of the 8 models currently active on ALCO, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $27.87 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.48. CirclFi's published fair value for ALCO is the median of that range, $10.32, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 265% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ALCO a value trap in 2026?

Alico, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 45/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Alico, Inc. (ALCO) has a median fair value of $10.32 — 74.5% below the current price of $40.42 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ALCO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ALCO valuation
  • Financial statements: Alico, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000003545) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ALCO as of ; valuations recomputed .

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