Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Fair Value 2026

CALM · Farm Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) trades at $63.40, versus a $90.70 median fair value across its 12 active models — 43.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $102.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
CALM
Price
$63.40
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +199.8% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $90.70, 43.1% above the current price of $63.40. Estimates range from $28.55 to $231.48. CALM scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CALM’s +43.1% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CALM?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($63.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $102.63 +61.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $107.34 +69.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $89.93 +41.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $190.09 +199.8%
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What Is CALM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $28.55 to $231.48

CirclFi's 12 active models place Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) between $28.55 and $231.48 per share, a spread of 224% of the median. The median of that range — $90.70 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CALM, against a current price of $63.40.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$28.55median $90.70$231.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$28.55
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$231.48
Model agreement7 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CALM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CALM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. at $63.40. With an estimated intrinsic value of $90.70 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +43.1%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $231.48 (+265.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $28.55 (-55.0%). This +320.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CALM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CALM. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CALM is $90.70 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $102.63 on its own, implying +61.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CALM Rank in Farm Products?

Among 22 Farm Products stocks, CALM ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places CALM in the top tier.

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CALM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CALM a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +320.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CALM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CALM's 12 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Farm Products stocks with 13-model coverage

AFRIForafric Global PLCQOC 1.9VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8AGROAdecoagro S.A.QOC 2.6VITLVital Farms, Inc.QOC 8.6SDOTSadot Group Inc.QOC 3.7DMCDel Monte CorporationQOC 8.5TSNTyson Foods, Inc.QOC 7.6ALCOAlico, Inc.QOC 6.3ESGHESG Inc.QOC 4.7

Read investment analysis: AFRI · VFF · AGRO · VITL · SDOT · DMC · TSN · ALCO · ESGH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CALM?

7 companies across all industries closest to CALM’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.QOC 8.9CMECME Group Inc.QOC 8.9WABWestinghouse Air Brake Technologies CorporationQOC 8.9SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.QOC 8.9PLABPhotronics, Inc.QOC 8.9URBNUrban Outfitters, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TJX · CME · WAB · SPSC · PLAB · URBN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM)'s intrinsic value at $90.70 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $28.55 to $231.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $102.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CALM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $63.40, 8 of 12 active models suggest CALM may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $90.70, 43.1% above the current price of $63.40 — a consensus view that CALM is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s business model in Farm Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for CALM?

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CALM?

CirclFi analyzes CALM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CALM?

Of the 12 models currently active on CALM, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $231.48 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $28.55. CirclFi's published fair value for CALM is the median of that range, $90.70, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 224% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CALM a value trap in 2026?

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) has a median fair value of $90.70 — 43.1% above the current price of $63.40 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CALM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CALM valuation
  • Financial statements: Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000016160) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CALM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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