Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Fair Value 2026

CALM · Agricultural Prod-Livestock & Animal Specialties ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

10.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) trades at $83.41, approximately 48% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $160.59. QOC: 10.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CALM
Price
$83.41
Quality Score
10.0/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +92.5% upside with 63% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($83.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $160.59 +92.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $61.05 -26.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $158.15 +89.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $141.58 +69.7%

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What Is Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. at $83.41. With an estimated intrinsic value of $140.88 and 7 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +68.9%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $374.12 (+348.5%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $31.95 (-61.7%). This +410.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About CALM?

12 of 13 models are currently active for CALM. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CALM's intrinsic value at $160.59, implying +92.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CALM Rank in Agricultural Prod-Livestock & Animal Specialties?

Among 3 Agricultural Prod-Livestock & Animal Specialties stocks, CALM ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 10.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 10.0 places CALM in the top tier.

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CALM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CALM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 10.0/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +410.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CALM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CALM's 12 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Agricultural Prod-Livestock & Animal Specialties Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Agricultural Prod-Livestock & Animal Specialties stocks with 13-model coverage

MGNMegan Holdings LimitedQOC 7.7NCRANocera, Inc.QOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: MGN · NCRA

Frequently Asked Questions About Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.

What is Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $160.59. The Quality of Company score is 10.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CALM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $83.41, 7 of 12 active models suggest CALM may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s business model in Agricultural Prod-Livestock & Animal Specialties.

What does a Quality of Company score of 10.0 mean for CALM?

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s QOC of 10.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CALM?

CirclFi analyzes CALM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CALM a value trap in 2026?

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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