Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Fair Value 2026

TSN · Farm Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) trades at $55.40, versus a $64.21 median fair value across its 11 active models — 15.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.81.

Key Facts

Ticker
TSN
Price
$55.40
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +15.9% upside with 82% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $64.21, 15.9% above the current price of $55.40. Estimates range from $7.81 to $103.78. TSN scores 7.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TSN’s +15.9% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tyson Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TSN?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($55.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.81 -85.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $64.21 +15.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $55.25 -0.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.56 -21.4%
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What Is TSN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $7.81 to $103.78

CirclFi's 11 active models place Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) between $7.81 and $103.78 per share, a spread of 149% of the median. The median of that range — $64.21 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TSN, against a current price of $55.40.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$7.81median $64.21$103.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$7.81
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$103.78
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TSN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TSN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tyson Foods, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $55.40. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $64.21 (+15.9% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $103.78 (+87.3%), versus Bayesian DCF at $7.81 (-85.9%). This +173.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TSN?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TSN. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TSN is $64.21 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.81 on its own, implying -85.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TSN Rank in Farm Products?

Among 22 Farm Products stocks, TSN ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Tyson Foods, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TSN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSN a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Tyson Foods, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tyson Foods, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +173.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TSN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TSN's 11 active models, average confidence is 55%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tyson Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Farm Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Farm Products stocks with 13-model coverage

DOLEDole plcQOC 7.8ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland CompanyQOC 7.5DMCDel Monte CorporationQOC 8.5AGRZAgroz Inc.QOC 6.9VITLVital Farms, Inc.QOC 8.6BGBunge Global SAQOC 6.8TULPBloomia Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6ESGHESG Inc.QOC 4.7AFRIForafric Global PLCQOC 1.9CALMCal-Maine Foods, Inc.QOC 9.0VFFVillage Farms International, Inc.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: DOLE · ADM · DMC · AGRZ · VITL · BG · TULP · ESGH · AFRI · CALM · VFF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TSN?

7 companies across all industries closest to TSN’s Quality of Company score of 7.6/10.

SGHCSuper Group (SGHC) LimitedQOC 7.6SUNSSunrise Realty Trust, Inc.QOC 7.6KRThe Kroger Co.QOC 7.6ZZillow Group, Inc.QOC 7.6CNHCNH Industrial N.V.QOC 7.6LNCLincoln National CorporationQOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SGHC · SUNS · KR · Z · CNH · LNC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tyson Foods, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tyson Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)'s intrinsic value at $64.21 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.81 to $103.78. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.81 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TSN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $55.40, 6 of 11 active models suggest TSN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $64.21, 15.9% above the current price of $55.40 — a consensus view that TSN is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tyson Foods, Inc.'s business model in Farm Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for TSN?

Tyson Foods, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TSN?

CirclFi analyzes TSN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TSN?

Of the 11 models currently active on TSN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $103.78 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $7.81. CirclFi's published fair value for TSN is the median of that range, $64.21, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 149% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TSN a value trap in 2026?

Tyson Foods, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) has a median fair value of $64.21 — 15.9% above the current price of $55.40 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TSN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TSN valuation
  • Financial statements: Tyson Foods, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000100493) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TSN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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