Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Fair Value 2026

TSN · Poultry Slaughtering and Processing ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) trades at $57.48, approximately 115% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $26.71. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TSN
Price
$57.48
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +197.1% upside with 79% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($57.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$26.71 -53.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$170.78 +197.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$121.17 +110.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$62.12 +8.1%

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What Is Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tyson Foods, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $57.48. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $73.16 (+27.3% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 6 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: EPV targets $170.78 (+197.1%), versus Regime Cross at $22.54 (-60.8%). This +257.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About TSN?

12 of 13 models are currently active for TSN. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates TSN's intrinsic value at $26.71, implying -53.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TSN Rank in Poultry Slaughtering and Processing?

Among 2 Poultry Slaughtering and Processing stocks, TSN ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Tyson Foods, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TSN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSN a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Tyson Foods, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Tyson Foods, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +257.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TSN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TSN's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tyson Foods, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Poultry Slaughtering and Processing Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

1 related Poultry Slaughtering and Processing stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: PPC

Frequently Asked Questions About Tyson Foods, Inc.

What is Tyson Foods, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $26.71. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TSN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $57.48, 7 of 12 active models suggest TSN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tyson Foods, Inc.'s business model in Poultry Slaughtering and Processing.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for TSN?

Tyson Foods, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TSN?

CirclFi analyzes TSN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TSN a value trap in 2026?

Tyson Foods, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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