Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) Fair Value 2026

DRVN · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) trades at $12.47, versus a $12.96 median fair value across its 10 active models — 3.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.22.

Key Facts

Ticker
DRVN
Price
$12.47
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +147.1% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $12.96, within 3.9% of the current price of $12.47. Estimates range from $3.40 to $33.89. DRVN scores 6.9/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. DRVN’s +3.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -3.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Driven Brands Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DRVN?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.22 -50.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.40 -72.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.06 -3.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $30.81 +147.1%
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What Is DRVN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.40 to $33.89

CirclFi's 10 active models place Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) between $3.40 and $33.89 per share, a spread of 235% of the median. The median of that range — $12.96 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DRVN, against a current price of $12.47.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.40median $12.96$33.89
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$3.40
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$33.89
Model agreement5 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DRVN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DRVN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $12.47. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $12.96 (+3.9% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $33.89 (+171.8%), versus EPV at $3.40 (-72.8%). This +244.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About DRVN?

10 of 13 models are currently active for DRVN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DRVN is $12.96 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.22 on its own, implying -50.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DRVN Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 24 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, DRVN ranks #12 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

The Auto & Truck Dealerships sector introduces analytical considerations specific to transportation company businesses. For Driven Brands Holdings Inc., metrics like inventory days supply provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is DRVN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DRVN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Driven Brands Holdings Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. scores 6.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +244.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DRVN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DRVN's 10 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Driven Brands Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

BGSIBoyd Group Services Inc.QOC 7.6KMXCarMax, Inc.QOC 6.9VVVValvoline Inc.QOC 7.8CRMTAmerica's Car-Mart, Inc.QOC 6.5GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.QOC 7.8NXBNextBoat Inc.QOC 6.5UXINUxin LimitedQOC 6.0JZXNJiuzi Holdings, Inc.QOC 1.6ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0CARGCarGurus, Inc.QOC 9.5OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BGSI · KMX · VVV · CRMT · GPI · NXB · UXIN · JZXN · ABG · CARG · OPLN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DRVN?

6 companies across all industries closest to DRVN’s Quality of Company score of 6.9/10.

MIAXMiami International Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9NEOGNeogen CorporationQOC 6.9NLNLI Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9CCSCentury Communities, Inc.QOC 6.9LIENChicago Atlantic BDC, Inc.QOC 6.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MIAX · NEOG · NL · CCS · LIEN · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Driven Brands Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Driven Brands Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN)'s intrinsic value at $12.96 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.40 to $33.89. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.22 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DRVN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.47, 5 of 10 active models suggest DRVN may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $12.96, within 3.9% of the current price of $12.47 — a consensus view that DRVN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Driven Brands Holdings Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for DRVN?

Driven Brands Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DRVN?

CirclFi analyzes DRVN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DRVN?

Of the 10 models currently active on DRVN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $33.89 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $3.40. CirclFi's published fair value for DRVN is the median of that range, $12.96, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 235% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DRVN a value trap in 2026?

Driven Brands Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) has a median fair value of $12.96 — within 3.9% of the current price of $12.47 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DRVN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DRVN valuation
  • Financial statements: Driven Brands Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001804745) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DRVN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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