Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) Fair Value 2026

SAH · Auto & Truck Dealerships ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (16/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) trades at $61.00, versus a $70.81 median fair value across its 12 active models — 16.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 16/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $19.68.

Key Facts

Ticker
SAH
Price
$61.00
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
16/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +24.6% upside with 5% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $70.81, 16.1% above the current price of $61.00. Estimates range from $19.68 to $160.55. SAH scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 16/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SAH’s +16.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Auto & Truck Dealerships sector median is -11.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sonic Automotive, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SAH?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($61.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.68 -67.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.02 -44.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $76.02 +24.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $51.14 -16.2%
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What Is SAH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $19.68 to $160.55

CirclFi's 12 active models place Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) between $19.68 and $160.55 per share, a spread of 199% of the median. The median of that range — $70.81 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SAH, against a current price of $61.00.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$19.68median $70.81$160.55
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$19.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$160.55
Model agreement8 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SAH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SAH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $70.81. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $61.00 (implied upside of +16.1%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 8 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +163.2% (fair value: $160.55), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -67.7% ($19.68). The spread between these extremes — +230.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SAH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SAH. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SAH is $70.81 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $19.68 on its own, implying -67.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SAH Rank in Auto & Truck Dealerships?

Among 23 Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks, SAH ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s positioning within the Auto & Truck Dealerships segment means that inventory days supply plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including software-defined vehicle revenue — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SAH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SAH a score of 16/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Sonic Automotive, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sonic Automotive, Inc. scores 8.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +230.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SAH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SAH's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sonic Automotive, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Auto & Truck Dealerships Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Auto & Truck Dealerships stocks with 13-model coverage

ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.0LADLithia Motors, Inc.QOC 7.8ANAutoNation, Inc.QOC 8.1GPIGroup 1 Automotive, Inc.QOC 7.8PAGPenske Automotive Group, Inc.QOC 8.1VVVValvoline Inc.QOC 7.8KMXCarMax, Inc.QOC 6.9UXINUxin LimitedQOC 6.0JZXNJiuzi Holdings, Inc.QOC 1.7OPLNOPENLANE, Inc.QOC 9.1CVNACarvana Co.QOC 8.2

Read investment analysis: ABG · LAD · AN · GPI · PAG · VVV · KMX · UXIN · JZXN · OPLN · CVNA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SAH?

7 companies across all industries closest to SAH’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

NENoble Corporation plcQOC 8.0GBXThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.QOC 8.0LTCLTC Properties, Inc.QOC 8.0OVVOvintiv Inc.QOC 8.0CNQCanadian Natural Resources LimitedQOC 8.0EBFEnnis, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NE · GBX · LTC · OVV · CNQ · EBF · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sonic Automotive, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH)'s intrinsic value at $70.81 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $19.68 to $160.55. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $19.68 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SAH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $61.00, 8 of 12 active models suggest SAH may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $70.81, 16.1% above the current price of $61.00 — a consensus view that SAH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s business model in Auto & Truck Dealerships.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for SAH?

Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SAH?

CirclFi analyzes SAH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SAH?

Of the 12 models currently active on SAH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $160.55 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $19.68. CirclFi's published fair value for SAH is the median of that range, $70.81, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 199% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SAH a value trap in 2026?

Sonic Automotive, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 16/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Sonic Automotive, Inc. (SAH) has a median fair value of $70.81 — 16.1% above the current price of $61.00 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SAH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SAH valuation
  • Financial statements: Sonic Automotive, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001043509) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SAH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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