Noble Corporation plc (NE) Fair Value 2026

NE · Oil & Gas Drilling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Noble Corporation plc (NE) trades at $45.76, versus a $21.82 median fair value across its 9 active models — 52.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $15.35.

Key Facts

Ticker
NE
Price
$45.76
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Noble Corporation plc (NE) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Noble Corporation plc (NE) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $21.82, 52.3% below the current price of $45.76. Estimates range from $8.64 to $40.96. NE scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NE’s -52.3% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Noble Corporation plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NE?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.35 -66.5%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $24.25 -47.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $40.96 -10.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.14 -53.8%
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What Is NE's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $8.64 to $40.96

CirclFi's 9 active models place Noble Corporation plc (NE) between $8.64 and $40.96 per share, a spread of 148% of the median. The median of that range — $21.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NE, against a current price of $45.76.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · First Chicago
$8.64median $21.82$40.96
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$8.64
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$40.96
Model agreement0 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NE. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NE, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Noble Corporation plc (NE) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Noble Corporation plc's intrinsic value is estimated at $21.82, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $45.76. With 9 out of 9 models flagging downside (-52.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $40.96 (-10.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $8.64 (-81.1%). This +70.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Noble Corporation plc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NE?

9 of 13 models are currently active for NE. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NE is $21.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $15.35 on its own, implying -66.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NE Rank in Oil & Gas Drilling?

Among 10 Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, NE ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places NE in the top tier.

As a energy sector, Noble Corporation plc operates in a sector where finding and development costs (F&D) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating NE should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is NE a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NE a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Noble Corporation plc. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Noble Corporation plc's fundamental quality profile registers 8.1/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +70.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NE valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NE's 9 active models, average confidence is 48%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Noble Corporation plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Drilling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Drilling stocks with 13-model coverage

VALValaris LimitedQOC 8.2BORRBorr Drilling LimitedQOC 7.8PDSPrecision Drilling CorporationQOC 7.7NBRNabors Industries Ltd.QOC 7.6PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.QOC 7.1RIGTransocean Ltd.QOC 6.6SDRLSeadrill LimitedQOC 6.5SOCSable Offshore Corp.QOC 4.0

Read investment analysis: VAL · BORR · PDS · NBR · PTEN · HP · RIG · SDRL · SOC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NE?

7 companies across all industries closest to NE’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

WNCWabash National CorporationQOC 8.1UHTUniversal Health Realty Income TrustQOC 8.1PATKPatrick Industries, Inc.QOC 8.1ACTGAcacia Research CorporationQOC 8.1CSGPCoStar Group, Inc.QOC 8.1IBCPIndependent Bank CorporationQOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: WNC · UHT · PATK · ACTG · CSGP · IBCP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Noble Corporation plc’s Valuation?

What is Noble Corporation plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Noble Corporation plc (NE)'s intrinsic value at $21.82 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $8.64 to $40.96. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $15.35 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NE overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.76, 0 of 9 active models suggest NE may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $21.82, 52.3% below the current price of $45.76 — a consensus view that NE is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Noble Corporation plc's business model in Oil & Gas Drilling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for NE?

Noble Corporation plc's QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NE?

CirclFi analyzes NE with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NE?

Of the 9 models currently active on NE, First Chicago is the most bullish at $40.96 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $8.64. CirclFi's published fair value for NE is the median of that range, $21.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 148% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NE a value trap in 2026?

Noble Corporation plc's Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Noble Corporation plc (NE) has a median fair value of $21.82 — 52.3% below the current price of $45.76 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NE/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NE valuation
  • Financial statements: Noble Corporation plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001895262) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NE as of ; valuations recomputed .

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