Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Fair Value 2026

PTEN · Drilling Oil & Gas Wells ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 13 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (23/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) trades at $9.84, approximately 466% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $1.74. QOC: 4.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 23/100 (SAFE). 13/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PTEN
Price
$9.84
Quality Score
4.5/10
Value Trap Risk
23/100
Models Active
13/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +13.1% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.5/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 13 independent fair value estimates is $5.35, 45.7% below the current price of $9.84. Estimates range from $0.27 to $35.29. PTEN scores 4.5/10 on fundamental quality and 23/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

13 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.84)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$1.74 -82.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$5.35 -45.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$11.13 +13.1%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$2.81 -71.5%

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What Is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. at its current price of $9.84. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $8.72 (-11.3% average return), with 8 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $35.29 (+258.7%), versus Regime Cross at $0.27 (-97.3%). This +355.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PTEN?

13 of 13 models are currently active for PTEN. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PTEN's intrinsic value at $1.74, implying -82.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PTEN Rank in Drilling Oil & Gas Wells?

Among 12 Drilling Oil & Gas Wells stocks, PTEN ranks #10 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

Within the Drilling Oil & Gas Wells space, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. competes in an environment where reserve replacement ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PTEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PTEN a score of 23/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

13 of 13 models are active for Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. is rated at 4.5/10. This moderate-tier score shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +355.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PTEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PTEN's 13 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Drilling Oil & Gas Wells Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Drilling Oil & Gas Wells stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HPK · BORR · NE · BTE · HP

Frequently Asked Questions About Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.

What is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $1.74. The Quality of Company score is 4.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PTEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.84, 5 of 13 active models suggest PTEN may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 13 fair value estimates is $5.35, 45.7% below the current price of $9.84 — a consensus view that PTEN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s business model in Drilling Oil & Gas Wells.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.5 mean for PTEN?

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 4.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PTEN?

CirclFi analyzes PTEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 13 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PTEN a value trap in 2026?

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 23/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 13-model valuation engine, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) has a median fair value of $5.35 — 45.7% below the current price of $9.84 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PTEN/ · Methodology

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