Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Fair Value 2026

PTEN · Oil & Gas Drilling ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) trades at $12.43, versus a $3.87 median fair value across its 8 active models — 68.8% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.29.

Key Facts

Ticker
PTEN
Price
$12.43
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $3.87, 68.8% below the current price of $12.43. Estimates range from $2.14 to $17.54. PTEN scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. PTEN’s -68.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PTEN?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.43)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.29 -41.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.63 -62.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $3.11 -74.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.14 -82.8%
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What Is PTEN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.14 to $17.54

CirclFi's 8 active models place Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) between $2.14 and $17.54 per share, a spread of 398% of the median. The median of that range — $3.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PTEN, against a current price of $12.43.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$2.14median $3.87$17.54
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$2.14
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$17.54
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PTEN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PTEN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $3.87, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $12.43. With 7 out of 8 models flagging downside (-68.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $17.54 (+41.1%), versus ML-RIV at $2.14 (-82.8%). This +123.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PTEN?

8 of 13 models are currently active for PTEN. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PTEN is $3.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.29 on its own, implying -41.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PTEN Rank in Oil & Gas Drilling?

Among 10 Oil & Gas Drilling stocks, PTEN ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Oil & Gas Drilling space, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. competes in an environment where reserve replacement ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PTEN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PTEN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +123.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PTEN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PTEN's 8 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Drilling Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Oil & Gas Drilling stocks with 13-model coverage

VALValaris LimitedQOC 8.2NENoble Corporation plcQOC 8.1BORRBorr Drilling LimitedQOC 7.8PDSPrecision Drilling CorporationQOC 7.7NBRNabors Industries Ltd.QOC 7.6HPHelmerich & Payne, Inc.QOC 7.1RIGTransocean Ltd.QOC 6.6SDRLSeadrill LimitedQOC 6.5SOCSable Offshore Corp.QOC 4.0

Read investment analysis: VAL · NE · BORR · PDS · NBR · HP · RIG · SDRL · SOC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PTEN?

7 companies across all industries closest to PTEN’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

INDVIndivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2AMPLAmplitude, Inc.QOC 7.2RRyder System, Inc.QOC 7.2FATNFatPipe, Inc.QOC 7.2DOCHealthpeak Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2ALBAlbemarle CorporationQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: INDV · AMPL · R · FATN · DOC · ALB · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN)'s intrinsic value at $3.87 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.14 to $17.54. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.29 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PTEN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.43, 1 of 8 active models suggest PTEN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $3.87, 68.8% below the current price of $12.43 — a consensus view that PTEN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Drilling.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for PTEN?

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PTEN?

CirclFi analyzes PTEN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PTEN?

Of the 8 models currently active on PTEN, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $17.54 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $2.14. CirclFi's published fair value for PTEN is the median of that range, $3.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 398% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PTEN a value trap in 2026?

Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. (PTEN) has a median fair value of $3.87 — 68.8% below the current price of $12.43 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PTEN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PTEN valuation
  • Financial statements: Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000889900) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PTEN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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