BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) Fair Value 2026

BTSG · Health Information Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) trades at $59.13, versus a $23.40 median fair value across its 8 active models — 60.4% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BTSG
Price
$59.13
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: 8 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $23.40, 60.4% below the current price of $59.13. Estimates range from $3.47 to $100.24. BTSG scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 17/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BTSG’s -60.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Health Information Services sector median is +4.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BTSG?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($59.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $23.58 -60.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $47.30 -20.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.47 -94.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.48 -87.4%
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What Is BTSG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $3.47 to $100.24

CirclFi's 8 active models place BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) between $3.47 and $100.24 per share, a spread of 414% of the median. The median of that range — $23.40 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BTSG, against a current price of $59.13.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$3.47median $23.40$100.24
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.47
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$100.24
Model agreement1 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BTSG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BTSG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $23.40. Trading at its current price of $59.13, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -60.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +69.5% (fair value: $100.24), while EROIC is the most conservative at -94.1% ($3.47). The spread between these extremes — +163.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BTSG?

8 of 13 models are currently active for BTSG. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BTSG is $23.40 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BTSG Rank in Health Information Services?

Among 55 Health Information Services stocks, BTSG ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Health Information Services Stocks →

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is BTSG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BTSG a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. scores 7.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BTSG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BTSG's 8 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Health Information Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Health Information Services stocks with 13-model coverage

TDOCTeladoc Health, Inc.QOC 7.3SDGRSchrödinger, Inc.QOC 7.1SLPSimulations Plus, Inc.QOC 7.4NRCNRC HealthQOC 7.0OMCLOmnicell, Inc.QOC 7.5DHDefinitive Healthcare Corp.QOC 7.0HTFLHeartflow, Inc.QOC 6.1ONMDOneMedNet CorporationQOC 4.8SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6DOCSDoximity, Inc.QOC 9.6HQYHealthEquity, Inc.QOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: TDOC · SDGR · SLP · NRC · OMCL · DH · HTFL · ONMD · SPOK · DOCS · HQY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BTSG?

7 companies across all industries closest to BTSG’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

MYPSPLAYSTUDIOS, Inc.QOC 7.2AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.QOC 7.2CYDChina Yuchai International LimitedQOC 7.2QNTOQuaint Oak Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2SUPNSupernus Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 7.2ELANElanco Animal Health IncorporatedQOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MYPS · AMCX · CYD · QNTO · SUPN · ELAN · NVDA

Where Does BTSG Sit in CirclFi's Health Information Services Rankings?

BTSG is ranked against every other Health Information Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Health Information Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG)'s intrinsic value at $23.40 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.47 to $100.24. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BTSG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $59.13, 1 of 8 active models suggest BTSG may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $23.40, 60.4% below the current price of $59.13 — a consensus view that BTSG is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s business model in Health Information Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for BTSG?

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BTSG?

CirclFi analyzes BTSG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BTSG?

Of the 8 models currently active on BTSG, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $100.24 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.47. CirclFi's published fair value for BTSG is the median of that range, $23.40, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 414% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BTSG a value trap in 2026?

BrightSpring Health Services, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. (BTSG) has a median fair value of $23.40 — 60.4% below the current price of $59.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BTSG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BTSG valuation
  • Financial statements: BrightSpring Health Services, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001865782) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BTSG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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