Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) Fair Value 2026

RJET · Airlines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) trades at $17.59, versus a $25.04 median fair value across its 9 active models — 42.3% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $20.43.

Key Facts

Ticker
RJET
Price
$17.59
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +134.1% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $25.04, 42.3% above the current price of $17.59. Estimates range from $16.07 to $52.07. RJET scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. RJET’s +42.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Airlines sector median is +38.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Republic Airways Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RJET?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.59)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $20.43 +16.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $25.04 +42.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $41.18 +134.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $19.06 +8.3%
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What Is RJET's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $16.07 to $52.07

CirclFi's 9 active models place Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) between $16.07 and $52.07 per share, a spread of 144% of the median. The median of that range — $25.04 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RJET, against a current price of $17.59.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$16.07median $25.04$52.07
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$16.07
Most bullish modelPWERM$52.07
Model agreement8 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RJET. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RJET, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Republic Airways Holdings Inc.. Trading at $17.59 against an estimated intrinsic value of $25.04, 8 of 9 active models flag meaningful upside of +42.3% at the median. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $52.07 (+196.0%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $16.07 (-8.7%). This +204.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Republic Airways Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RJET?

9 of 13 models are currently active for RJET. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RJET is $25.04 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $20.43 on its own, implying +16.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RJET Rank in Airlines?

Among 17 Airlines stocks, RJET ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

As a automotive sector, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. operates in a sector where fleet electrification pace is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RJET should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RJET a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RJET a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Republic Airways Holdings Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Republic Airways Holdings Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 7.2/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +204.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RJET valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RJET's 9 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Republic Airways Holdings Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Airlines Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Airlines stocks with 13-model coverage

AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.QOC 7.2ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5JBLUJetBlue Airways CorporationQOC 7.4VLRSControladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 6.5ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQOC 7.6FLYXflyExclusive, Inc.QOC 5.8PREMPremier Air Charter Holdings Inc.QOC 5.2UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8LUVSouthwest Airlines Co.QOC 8.0DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: AAL · ULCC · JBLU · VLRS · ALGT · FLYX · PREM · UAL · LUV · DAL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RJET?

7 companies across all industries closest to RJET’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

AHRTAH REALTY TRUST INCQOC 7.2PTENPatterson-UTI Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2BTSGBrightSpring Health Services, Inc.QOC 7.2PPLIPeople IncorporatedQOC 7.2YORWThe York Water CompanyQOC 7.2PROVProvident Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AHRT · PTEN · BTSG · PPLI · YORW · PROV · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Republic Airways Holdings Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Republic Airways Holdings Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET)'s intrinsic value at $25.04 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $16.07 to $52.07. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $20.43 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RJET overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.59, 8 of 9 active models suggest RJET may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $25.04, 42.3% above the current price of $17.59 — a consensus view that RJET is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Republic Airways Holdings Inc.'s business model in Airlines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for RJET?

Republic Airways Holdings Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RJET?

CirclFi analyzes RJET with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RJET?

Of the 9 models currently active on RJET, PWERM is the most bullish at $52.07 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $16.07. CirclFi's published fair value for RJET is the median of that range, $25.04, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 144% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RJET a value trap in 2026?

Republic Airways Holdings Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Republic Airways Holdings Inc. (RJET) has a median fair value of $25.04 — 42.3% above the current price of $17.59 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RJET/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RJET valuation
  • Financial statements: Republic Airways Holdings Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000810332) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RJET as of ; valuations recomputed .

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