Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) Fair Value 2026

VLRS · Airlines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) trades at $6.54, versus a $20.74 median fair value across its 5 active models — 217.1% above the current price. QOC: 6.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $37.06.

Key Facts

Ticker
VLRS
Price
$6.54
Quality Score
6.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +466.7% upside with 30% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $20.74, 217.1% above the current price of $6.54. Estimates range from $8.46 to $37.06. VLRS scores 6.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. VLRS’s +217.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Airlines sector median is +40.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VLRS?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $37.06 +466.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.78 +309.5%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including EROIC Spread, PWERM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 5 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is VLRS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $8.46 to $37.06

CirclFi's 5 active models place Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) between $8.46 and $37.06 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $20.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VLRS, against a current price of $6.54.

Low · EROICHigh · Bayesian DCF
$8.46median $20.74$37.06
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$8.46
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$37.06
Model agreement5 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VLRS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VLRS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.. Trading at $6.54 against an estimated intrinsic value of $20.74, 5 of 5 active models flag meaningful upside of +217.1% at the median. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $37.06 (+466.7%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $8.46 (+29.4%). This +437.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About VLRS?

5 of 13 models are currently active for VLRS. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for VLRS is $20.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $37.06 on its own, implying +466.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VLRS Rank in Airlines?

Among 17 Airlines stocks, VLRS ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.5 indicates above-average quality.

As a automotive sector, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. operates in a sector where average transaction price (ATP) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating VLRS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is VLRS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VLRS a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.5/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +437.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VLRS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VLRS's 5 active models, average confidence is 19%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Airlines Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Airlines stocks with 13-model coverage

ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.5FLYXflyExclusive, Inc.QOC 6.0RJETRepublic Airways Holdings Inc.QOC 7.1PREMPremier Air Charter Holdings Inc.QOC 5.2AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.QOC 7.3AEROGrupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.VQOC 5.1SRFMSurf Air Mobility Inc.QOC 4.6ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.QOC 8.3ALGTAllegiant Travel CompanyQOC 7.6DALDelta Air Lines, Inc.QOC 8.9UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8

Read investment analysis: ULCC · FLYX · RJET · PREM · AAL · AERO · SRFM · ALK · ALGT · DAL · UAL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VLRS?

7 companies across all industries closest to VLRS’s Quality of Company score of 6.5/10.

KWYKingsway CorporationQOC 6.5HUYAHUYA Inc.QOC 6.5EDITEditas Medicine, Inc.QOC 6.5GFLGFL Environmental Inc.QOC 6.5BEAMBeam Therapeutics Inc.QOC 6.5BSBRBanco Santander (Brasil) S.A.QOC 6.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KWY · HUYA · EDIT · GFL · BEAM · BSBR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.’s Valuation?

What is Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS)'s intrinsic value at $20.74 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $8.46 to $37.06. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $37.06 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VLRS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.54, 5 of 5 active models suggest VLRS may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $20.74, 217.1% above the current price of $6.54 — a consensus view that VLRS is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.'s business model in Airlines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.5 mean for VLRS?

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.'s QOC of 6.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VLRS?

CirclFi analyzes VLRS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VLRS?

Of the 5 models currently active on VLRS, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $37.06 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $8.46. CirclFi's published fair value for VLRS is the median of that range, $20.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VLRS a value trap in 2026?

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) has a median fair value of $20.74 — 217.1% above the current price of $6.54 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VLRS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VLRS valuation

Market data for VLRS as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 5 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on VLRS.

Unlock All 5 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for VLRS Unlock All 5 — $39/mo