Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Fair Value 2026

DAL · Airlines ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) trades at $81.14, versus a $62.75 median fair value across its 12 active models — 22.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $55.19.

Key Facts

Ticker
DAL
Price
$81.14
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +86.7% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) appears overvalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $62.75, 22.7% below the current price of $81.14. Estimates range from $10.17 to $151.53. DAL scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. DAL’s -22.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Airlines sector median is +37.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Delta Air Lines, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give DAL?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($81.14)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $55.19 -32.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $63.28 -22.0%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $151.53 +86.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $42.17 -48.0%
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What Is DAL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $10.17 to $151.53

CirclFi's 12 active models place Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) between $10.17 and $151.53 per share, a spread of 225% of the median. The median of that range — $62.75 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for DAL, against a current price of $81.14.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$10.17median $62.75$151.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$10.17
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$151.53
Model agreement3 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for DAL. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on DAL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $62.75, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $81.14. With 9 out of 12 models flagging downside (-22.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $151.53 (+86.7%), versus Markov DDM at $10.17 (-87.5%). This +174.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About DAL?

12 of 13 models are currently active for DAL. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for DAL is $62.75 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $55.19 on its own, implying -32.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does DAL Rank in Airlines?

Among 17 Airlines stocks, DAL ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places DAL in the top tier.

Within the Airlines space, Delta Air Lines, Inc. competes in an environment where fleet electrification pace often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is DAL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns DAL a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Delta Air Lines, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +174.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every DAL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across DAL's 12 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Delta Air Lines, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Airlines Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Airlines stocks with 13-model coverage

SRFMSurf Air Mobility Inc.QOC 4.6UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.8AEROGrupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.VQOC 5.1SKYWSkyWest, Inc.QOC 8.5PREMPremier Air Charter Holdings Inc.QOC 5.2ALKAlaska Air Group, Inc.QOC 8.3LTMLATAM Airlines Group S.A.QOC 8.3JBLUJetBlue Airways CorporationQOC 7.4VLRSControladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.QOC 6.5

Read investment analysis: SRFM · UAL · AERO · SKYW · PREM · ALK · LTM · JBLU · VLRS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to DAL?

7 companies across all industries closest to DAL’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

QCOMQUALCOMM IncorporatedQOC 8.9PRPermian Resources CorporationQOC 8.9COPConocoPhillipsQOC 8.9FCXFreeport-McMoRan Inc.QOC 8.9JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9BRBroadridge Financial Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: QCOM · PR · COP · FCX · JJSF · BR · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Delta Air Lines, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL)'s intrinsic value at $62.75 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $10.17 to $151.53. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $55.19 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is DAL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $81.14, 3 of 12 active models suggest DAL may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $62.75, 22.7% below the current price of $81.14 — a consensus view that DAL is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s business model in Airlines.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for DAL?

Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on DAL?

CirclFi analyzes DAL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on DAL?

Of the 12 models currently active on DAL, First Chicago is the most bullish at $151.53 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $10.17. CirclFi's published fair value for DAL is the median of that range, $62.75, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 225% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is DAL a value trap in 2026?

Delta Air Lines, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) has a median fair value of $62.75 — 22.7% below the current price of $81.14 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/DAL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this DAL valuation
  • Financial statements: Delta Air Lines, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000027904) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for DAL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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