Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Fair Value 2026

PROV · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) trades at $18.32, versus a $15.36 median fair value across its 6 active models — 16.2% below the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PROV
Price
$18.32
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $15.36, 16.2% below the current price of $18.32. Estimates range from $12.59 to $19.48. PROV scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PROV’s -16.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PROV?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.32)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.84 -19.0%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $15.07 -17.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $15.65 -14.6%
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What Is PROV's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $12.59 to $19.48

CirclFi's 6 active models place Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) between $12.59 and $19.48 per share, a spread of 45% of the median. The median of that range — $15.36 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PROV, against a current price of $18.32.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$12.59median $15.36$19.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$12.59
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$19.48
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PROV, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.36, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $18.32. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-16.2% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $19.48 (+6.3%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $12.59 (-31.3%). This +37.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About PROV?

6 of 13 models are currently active for PROV. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PROV is $15.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PROV Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, PROV ranks #285 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where deposit growth often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is PROV a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PROV a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. is rated at 7.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +37.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PROV valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PROV's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

WALWestern Alliance BancorporationQOC 7.2ECBKECB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2BMRCBank of Marin BancorpQOC 7.3QNTOQuaint Oak Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2MVBFMVB Financial Corp.QOC 7.3SFNCSimmons First National CorporationQOC 7.2ONBOld National BancorpQOC 8.7MPBMid Penn Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3NUNu Holdings Ltd.QOC 7.9ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: WAL · ECBK · BMRC · QNTO · MVBF · SFNC · ONB · MPB · NU · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PROV?

6 companies across all industries closest to PROV’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

EHTHeHealth, Inc.QOC 7.2CTRNCiti Trends, Inc.QOC 7.2KUBRKuber Resources CorporationQOC 7.2CBLCBL & Associates Properties, Inc.QOC 7.2NRGNRG Energy, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EHTH · CTRN · KUBR · CBL · NRG · NVDA

Where Does PROV Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

PROV is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV)'s intrinsic value at $15.36 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.59 to $19.48. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PROV overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.32, 1 of 6 active models suggest PROV may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $15.36, 16.2% below the current price of $18.32 — a consensus view that PROV is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for PROV?

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PROV?

CirclFi analyzes PROV with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PROV?

Of the 6 models currently active on PROV, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $19.48 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $12.59. CirclFi's published fair value for PROV is the median of that range, $15.36, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 45% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PROV a value trap in 2026?

Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. (PROV) has a median fair value of $15.36 — 16.2% below the current price of $18.32 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PROV/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PROV valuation
  • Financial statements: Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001010470) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PROV as of ; valuations recomputed .

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