First Capital, Inc. (FCAP) Fair Value 2026

FCAP · Savings Institution, Federally Chartered ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, First Capital, Inc. (FCAP) trades at $61.89, approximately 48% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $119.56. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FCAP
Price
$61.89
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +93.2% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($61.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $119.56 +93.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $7.28 -88.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $70.77 +14.3%
First Chicago
High Conviction
 $85.84 +38.7%

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What Is First Capital, Inc. (FCAP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $79.71, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $61.89. While the average implied return is +28.8%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +305.1% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $196.10 (+216.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $7.28 (-88.2%). This +305.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about First Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FCAP?

12 of 13 models are currently active for FCAP. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FCAP's intrinsic value at $119.56, implying +93.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FCAP Rank in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered?

Among 36 Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks, FCAP ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places FCAP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks →

First Capital, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is FCAP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FCAP a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for First Capital, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First Capital, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +305.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FCAP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FCAP's 12 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Savings Institution, Federally Chartered Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks with 13-model coverage

CPBICentral Plains Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.5MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3HTBHomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.1AXAxos Financial, Inc.QOC 9.0CLSTCatalyst Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.5BVFLBV Financial, Inc.QOC 8.5BCBPBCB Bancorp, Inc. (NJ)QOC 8.4PFSProvident Financial Services, IQOC 8.1

Read investment analysis: CPBI · MGYR · HTB · AX · CLST

See all Savings Institution, Federally Chartered stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About First Capital, Inc.

What is First Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, First Capital, Inc. (FCAP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $119.56. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FCAP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $61.89, 7 of 12 active models suggest FCAP may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First Capital, Inc.'s business model in Savings Institution, Federally Chartered.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for FCAP?

First Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FCAP?

CirclFi analyzes FCAP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FCAP a value trap in 2026?

First Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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