Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) Fair Value 2026

PFS · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) trades at $23.56, versus a $19.85 median fair value across its 6 active models — 15.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PFS
Price
$23.56
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $19.85, 15.7% below the current price of $23.56. Estimates range from $12.62 to $39.98. PFS scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. PFS’s -15.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Provident Financial Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give PFS?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.62 -46.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $18.97 -19.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.18 -31.3%
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What Is PFS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $12.62 to $39.98

CirclFi's 6 active models place Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) between $12.62 and $39.98 per share, a spread of 138% of the median. The median of that range — $19.85 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for PFS, against a current price of $23.56.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$12.62median $19.85$39.98
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$12.62
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$39.98
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for PFS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on PFS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Provident Financial Services, Inc. at its current price of $23.56. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $19.85 (-15.7% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $39.98 (+69.7%), versus EPV at $12.62 (-46.4%). This +116.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About PFS?

6 of 13 models are currently active for PFS. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for PFS is $19.85 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PFS Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, PFS ranks #111 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places PFS in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a lending environment, Provident Financial Services, Inc. operates in a sector where CET1 capital ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating PFS should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is PFS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PFS a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Provident Financial Services, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Provident Financial Services, Inc. is rated at 8.3/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +116.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PFS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PFS's 6 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Provident Financial Services, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

MPBMid Penn Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3TSBKTimberland Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3WAFDWaFd, Inc.QOC 8.3WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 8.3DCOMDime Commercial Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3BBARBanco BBVA Argentina S.A.QOC 7.9PROVProvident Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2ONBOld National BancorpQOC 8.7ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: MPB · TSBK · CTBI · WAFD · WABC · DCOM · BBAR · PROV · ONB · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to PFS?

5 companies across all industries closest to PFS’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.3RCMTRCM Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3ELSEquity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.QOC 8.3ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BJRI · RCMT · ELS · ARLO · NVDA

Where Does PFS Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

PFS is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Provident Financial Services, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS)'s intrinsic value at $19.85 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $12.62 to $39.98. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PFS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.56, 2 of 6 active models suggest PFS may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $19.85, 15.7% below the current price of $23.56 — a consensus view that PFS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for PFS?

Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PFS?

CirclFi analyzes PFS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on PFS?

Of the 6 models currently active on PFS, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $39.98 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $12.62. CirclFi's published fair value for PFS is the median of that range, $19.85, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 138% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is PFS a value trap in 2026?

Provident Financial Services, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Provident Financial Services, Inc. (PFS) has a median fair value of $19.85 — 15.7% below the current price of $23.56 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/PFS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this PFS valuation
  • Financial statements: Provident Financial Services, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001178970) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for PFS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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