Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) Fair Value 2026

SFNC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) trades at $22.69, versus a $29.82 median fair value across its 2 active models — 31.4% above the current price. QOC: 7.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SFNC
Price
$22.69
Quality Score
7.2/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +48.7% upside with 41% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $29.82, 31.4% above the current price of $22.69. Estimates range from $25.90 to $33.75. SFNC scores 7.2/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SFNC’s +31.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Simmons First National Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SFNC?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $33.75 +48.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $25.90 +14.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Simmons First National Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $29.82. At a current market price of $22.69, 2 of 2 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +31.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +48.7% (fair value: $33.75), while FTNN is the most conservative at +14.1% ($25.90). The spread between these extremes — +34.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SFNC?

2 of 13 models are currently active for SFNC. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SFNC is $29.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SFNC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, SFNC ranks #288 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Simmons First National Corporation's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that deposit growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SFNC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SFNC a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Simmons First National Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Simmons First National Corporation earns a quality score of 7.2/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +34.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SFNC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SFNC's 2 active models, average confidence is 26%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Simmons First National Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

QNTOQuaint Oak Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2CULLCullman Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2ECBKECB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2UBCPUnited Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2PROVProvident Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2HYNEHoyne Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.2TCBKTriCo BancsharesQOC 8.7WAFDWaFd, Inc.QOC 8.3CCFNMuncy Columbia Financial CorporationQOC 7.9ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: QNTO · CULL · ECBK · UBCP · PROV · HYNE · TCBK · WAFD · CCFN · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SFNC?

7 companies across all industries closest to SFNC’s Quality of Company score of 7.2/10.

NRUCNational Rural Utilities CooperQOC 7.2FDXFFedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.QOC 7.2SPHRSphere Entertainment Co.QOC 7.2UNMUnum GroupQOC 7.2FATNFatPipe, Inc.QOC 7.2FTSFortis Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NRUC · FDXF · SPHR · UNM · FATN · FTS · NVDA

Where Does SFNC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

SFNC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Simmons First National Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Simmons First National Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)'s intrinsic value at $29.82 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $25.90 to $33.75. The Quality of Company score is 7.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SFNC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.69, 2 of 2 active models suggest SFNC may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $29.82, 31.4% above the current price of $22.69 — a consensus view that SFNC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Simmons First National Corporation's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.2 mean for SFNC?

Simmons First National Corporation's QOC of 7.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SFNC?

CirclFi analyzes SFNC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SFNC a value trap in 2026?

Simmons First National Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) has a median fair value of $29.82 — 31.4% above the current price of $22.69 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SFNC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SFNC valuation
  • Financial statements: Simmons First National Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000090498) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SFNC as of ; valuations recomputed .