First BanCorp. (FBP) Fair Value 2026

FBP · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, First BanCorp. (FBP) trades at $27.71, versus a $30.23 median fair value across its 6 active models — 9.1% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FBP
Price
$27.71
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +100.7% upside with 59% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is First BanCorp. (FBP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, First BanCorp. (FBP) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $30.23, within 9.1% of the current price of $27.71. Estimates range from $17.77 to $55.63. FBP scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. FBP’s +9.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy First BanCorp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FBP?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($27.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $17.77 -35.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $32.68 +17.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $55.63 +100.7%
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What Is FBP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $17.77 to $55.63

CirclFi's 6 active models place First BanCorp. (FBP) between $17.77 and $55.63 per share, a spread of 125% of the median. The median of that range — $30.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FBP, against a current price of $27.71.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$17.77median $30.23$55.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$17.77
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$55.63
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FBP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FBP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is First BanCorp. (FBP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, First BanCorp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $30.23, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $27.71. While the median implied return is +9.1%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +136.6% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Markov DDM, places fair value at $55.63 (+100.7%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $17.77 (-35.9%). This +136.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about First BanCorp.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About FBP?

6 of 13 models are currently active for FBP. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FBP is $30.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FBP Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, FBP ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places FBP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For First BanCorp., metrics like CET1 capital ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FBP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FBP a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for First BanCorp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, First BanCorp. earns a quality score of 8.9/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +136.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FBP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FBP's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy First BanCorp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.0UNTYUnity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9OFGOFG BancorpQOC 9.0OBTOrange County Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.9FNBF.N.B. CorporationQOC 8.4RMBIRichmond Mutual Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 8.0CMTVCommunity BancorpQOC 7.4ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: BFST · UNTY · OFG · OBT · PEBO · SHBI · FNB · RMBI · CMTV · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FBP?

7 companies across all industries closest to FBP’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

DAKTDaktronics, Inc.QOC 8.9TDYTeledyne Technologies IncorporatedQOC 8.9ISSCInnovative Solutions and Support IncQOC 8.9MGYMagnolia Oil & Gas CorporationQOC 8.9PAYXPaychex, Inc.QOC 8.9CNMCore & Main, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DAKT · TDY · ISSC · MGY · PAYX · CNM · NVDA

Where Does FBP Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

FBP is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About First BanCorp.’s Valuation?

What is First BanCorp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts First BanCorp. (FBP)'s intrinsic value at $30.23 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $17.77 to $55.63. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FBP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $27.71, 4 of 6 active models suggest FBP may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $30.23, within 9.1% of the current price of $27.71 — a consensus view that FBP is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits First BanCorp.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for FBP?

First BanCorp.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FBP?

CirclFi analyzes FBP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FBP?

Of the 6 models currently active on FBP, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $55.63 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $17.77. CirclFi's published fair value for FBP is the median of that range, $30.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 125% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FBP a value trap in 2026?

First BanCorp.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, First BanCorp. (FBP) has a median fair value of $30.23 — within 9.1% of the current price of $27.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FBP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FBP valuation
  • Financial statements: First BanCorp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001057706) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FBP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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