Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) Fair Value 2026

OBT · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) trades at $37.95, versus a $38.23 median fair value across its 5 active models — 0.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OBT
Price
$37.95
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $38.23, essentially in line with the current price of $37.95. Estimates range from $11.47 to $58.04. OBT scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. OBT’s +0.7% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give OBT?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.95)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $37.92 -0.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $11.47 -69.8%
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What Is OBT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $11.47 to $58.04

CirclFi's 5 active models place Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) between $11.47 and $58.04 per share, a spread of 122% of the median. The median of that range — $38.23 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for OBT, against a current price of $37.95.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$11.47median $38.23$58.04
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$11.47
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$58.04
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for OBT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on OBT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $38.23, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $37.95. With a median implied return of +0.7% across a split 2–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +122.7% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +52.9% (fair value: $58.04), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -69.8% ($11.47). The spread between these extremes — +122.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About OBT?

5 of 13 models are currently active for OBT. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for OBT is $38.23 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OBT Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, OBT ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places OBT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

As a financial institution, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. operates in a sector where non-performing loan ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OBT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OBT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OBT a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Orange County Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. is rated at 8.9/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +122.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OBT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OBT's 5 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

UNTYUnity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.9FBPFirst BanCorp.QOC 8.9WTFCWintrust Financial CorporationQOC 8.9BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.0FXNCFirst National CorporationQOC 8.9SMBKSmartFinancial, Inc.QOC 8.3ENBPENB Financial CorpQOC 8.0OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.QOC 7.4ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: UNTY · SHBI · FBP · WTFC · BFST · FXNC · SMBK · ENBP · OCFC · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to OBT?

5 companies across all industries closest to OBT’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

PENPenumbra, Inc.QOC 8.9AIZAssurant, Inc.QOC 8.9AMEAMETEK, Inc.QOC 8.9CWCOConsolidated Water Co. Ltd.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PEN · AIZ · AME · CWCO · NVDA

Where Does OBT Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

OBT is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Orange County Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT)'s intrinsic value at $38.23 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $11.47 to $58.04. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OBT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.95, 3 of 5 active models suggest OBT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $38.23, essentially in line with the current price of $37.95 — a consensus view that OBT is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for OBT?

Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OBT?

CirclFi analyzes OBT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on OBT?

Of the 5 models currently active on OBT, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $58.04 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $11.47. CirclFi's published fair value for OBT is the median of that range, $38.23, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 122% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is OBT a value trap in 2026?

Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) has a median fair value of $38.23 — essentially in line with the current price of $37.95 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/OBT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this OBT valuation
  • Financial statements: Orange County Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001754226) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for OBT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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