What Is Orange County Bancorp, Inc. (OBT) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orange County Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $50.06, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $36.86. With an average implied return of +35.8% across a split 6–4 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +329.6% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +240.5% (fair value: $125.50), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -89.1% ($4.01). The spread between these extremes — +329.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.
What Do the Models Say About OBT?
12 of 13 models are currently active for OBT. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OBT's intrinsic value at $125.50, implying +240.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does OBT Rank in State Commercial Banks?
Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, OBT ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places OBT in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →
As a financial institution, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. operates in a sector where non-performing loan ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OBT should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.
Is OBT a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OBT a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for Orange County Bancorp, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Orange County Bancorp, Inc. is rated at 9.3/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +329.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every OBT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across OBT's 12 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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