Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) Fair Value 2026

MBBC · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) trades at $14.90, versus a $7.85 median fair value across its 5 active models — 47.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MBBC
Price
$14.90
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.9/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $7.85, 47.3% below the current price of $14.90. Estimates range from $3.48 to $9.75. MBBC scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MBBC’s -47.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -21.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Marathon Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MBBC?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.90)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.48 -76.7%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $6.89 -53.8%
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What Is MBBC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $3.48 to $9.75

CirclFi's 5 active models place Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) between $3.48 and $9.75 per share, a spread of 80% of the median. The median of that range — $7.85 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MBBC, against a current price of $14.90.

Low · EPVHigh · FTNN
$3.48median $7.85$9.75
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$3.48
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$9.75
Model agreement0 bullish · 5 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MBBC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marathon Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $7.85. Trading at its current price of $14.90, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 5 of 5 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -47.3%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $9.75 (-34.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $3.48 (-76.7%). This +42.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Marathon Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MBBC?

5 of 13 models are currently active for MBBC. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for MBBC is $7.85 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MBBC Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, MBBC ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places MBBC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Marathon Bancorp, Inc., metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MBBC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MBBC a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Marathon Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Marathon Bancorp, Inc. scores 8.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +42.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MBBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MBBC's 5 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Marathon Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

FBPFirst BanCorp.QOC 8.9UNTYUnity Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9BFSTBusiness First Bancshares, Inc.QOC 9.0OBTOrange County Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9OFGOFG BancorpQOC 9.0SHBIShore Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.9QCRHQCR Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.4FISIFinancial Institutions, Inc.QOC 8.0OCFCOceanFirst Financial Corp.QOC 7.4STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FBP · UNTY · BFST · OBT · OFG · SHBI · QCRH · FISI · OCFC · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MBBC?

7 companies across all industries closest to MBBC’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

PENPenumbra, Inc.QOC 8.9DCIDonaldson Company, Inc.QOC 8.9ACLSAxcelis Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9KOThe Coca-Cola CompanyQOC 8.9KEYSKeysight Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.9CVLTCommvault Systems, Inc.QOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PEN · DCI · ACLS · KO · KEYS · CVLT · NVDA

Where Does MBBC Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

MBBC is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Marathon Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Marathon Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC)'s intrinsic value at $7.85 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.48 to $9.75. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MBBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.90, 0 of 5 active models suggest MBBC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $7.85, 47.3% below the current price of $14.90 — a consensus view that MBBC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Marathon Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for MBBC?

Marathon Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MBBC?

CirclFi analyzes MBBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MBBC?

Of the 5 models currently active on MBBC, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $9.75 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $3.48. CirclFi's published fair value for MBBC is the median of that range, $7.85, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 80% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MBBC a value trap in 2026?

Marathon Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Marathon Bancorp, Inc. (MBBC) has a median fair value of $7.85 — 47.3% below the current price of $14.90 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MBBC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MBBC valuation
  • Financial statements: Marathon Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001835385) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MBBC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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