Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) Fair Value 2026

NECB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) trades at $26.78, versus a $33.59 median fair value across its 5 active models — 25.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NECB
Price
$26.78
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +30.0% upside with 15% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $33.59, 25.4% above the current price of $26.78. Estimates range from $27.10 to $68.30. NECB scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 14/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NECB’s +25.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -21.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NECB?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.78)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $34.81 +30.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.10 +1.2%
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What Is NECB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $27.10 to $68.30

CirclFi's 5 active models place Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) between $27.10 and $68.30 per share, a spread of 123% of the median. The median of that range — $33.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NECB, against a current price of $26.78.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$27.10median $33.59$68.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$27.10
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$68.30
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NECB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NECB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.59. At a current market price of $26.78, 4 of 5 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +25.4%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +155.0% (fair value: $68.30), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at +1.2% ($27.10). The spread between these extremes — +153.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NECB?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NECB. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NECB is $33.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NECB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, NECB ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places NECB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

The Banks - Regional sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc., metrics like non-performing loan ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NECB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NECB a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +153.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NECB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NECB's 5 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

FMBHFirst Mid Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.6FMCBFarmers & Merchants BancorpQOC 8.6EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.6USCBUSCB Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6FCBCFirst Community Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.6HOMBHome BancShares, Inc.QOC 8.6NWBINorthwest Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.2LARKLandmark Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8AVBHAvidbank Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.9STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: FMBH · FMCB · EWBC · USCB · FCBC · HOMB · NWBI · LARK · AVBH · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NECB?

6 companies across all industries closest to NECB’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

EBAYeBay Inc.QOC 8.6IHiHuman Inc.QOC 8.6FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationQOC 8.6CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: EBAY · IH · FIVE · NOC · CM · NVDA

Where Does NECB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

NECB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB)'s intrinsic value at $33.59 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $27.10 to $68.30. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NECB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.78, 5 of 5 active models suggest NECB may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $33.59, 25.4% above the current price of $26.78 — a consensus view that NECB is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for NECB?

Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NECB?

CirclFi analyzes NECB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NECB?

Of the 5 models currently active on NECB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $68.30 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $27.10. CirclFi's published fair value for NECB is the median of that range, $33.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 123% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NECB a value trap in 2026?

Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. (NECB) has a median fair value of $33.59 — 25.4% above the current price of $26.78 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NECB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NECB valuation
  • Financial statements: Northeast Community Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001847398) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NECB as of ; valuations recomputed .

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