Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC) Fair Value 2026

SMBC · Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC) trades at $75.18, approximately 105% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $36.72. QOC: 8.2/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SMBC
Price
$75.18
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +0.6% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($75.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$36.72 -51.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$7.12 -90.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$46.90 -37.6%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$75.60 +0.6%

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What Is Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. at its current price of $75.18. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $62.70 (-16.6% average return), with 7 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $230.81 (+207.0%), versus EROIC at $0.75 (-99.0%). This +306.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About SMBC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SMBC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SMBC's intrinsic value at $36.72, implying -51.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SMBC Rank in Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered?

Among 22 Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered stocks, SMBC ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places SMBC in the top tier.

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SMBC a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for SMBC. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +306.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SMBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SMBC's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.

What is Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc. (SMBC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $36.72. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SMBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $75.18, 5 of 12 active models suggest SMBC may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Savings Institutions, Not Federally Chartered.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for SMBC?

Southern Missouri Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SMBC?

CirclFi analyzes SMBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SMBC a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for SMBC at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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