Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Fair Value 2026

NOAH · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) trades at $8.58, versus a $10.69 median fair value across its 5 active models — 24.6% above the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOAH
Price
$8.58
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +49.4% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $10.69, 24.6% above the current price of $8.58. Estimates range from $4.97 to $32.43. NOAH scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NOAH’s +24.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Noah Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NOAH?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.58)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.69 +24.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $12.82 +49.4%
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What Is NOAH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $4.97 to $32.43

CirclFi's 5 active models place Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) between $4.97 and $32.43 per share, a spread of 257% of the median. The median of that range — $10.69 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NOAH, against a current price of $8.58.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · FTNN
$4.97median $10.69$32.43
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$4.97
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$32.43
Model agreement3 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NOAH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NOAH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Noah Holdings Limited at $8.58. With an estimated intrinsic value of $10.69 and 3 of 5 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +24.6%. The most optimistic model, FTNN, places fair value at $32.43 (+278.0%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $4.97 (-42.1%). This +320.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Noah Holdings Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NOAH?

5 of 13 models are currently active for NOAH. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NOAH is $10.69 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOAH Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, NOAH ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 places NOAH in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Noah Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NOAH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOAH a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Noah Holdings Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Noah Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +320.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOAH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOAH's 5 active models, average confidence is 31%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Noah Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.1VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0BAMBrookfield Asset Management Ltd.QOC 8.1BLKBlackRock, Inc.QOC 7.9TROWT. Rowe Price Group, Inc.QOC 8.1CGThe Carlyle Group Inc.QOC 7.8PNNTPennantPark Investment CorporationQOC 6.4TCPCBlackRock TCP Capital Corp.QOC 5.0BTZBlackRock Credit Allocation Income TrustQOC 3.7HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: ARES · VCTR · BAM · BLK · TROW · CG · PNNT · TCPC · BTZ · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NOAH?

7 companies across all industries closest to NOAH’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

MPLXMPLX LPQOC 8.0TGTTarget CorporationQOC 8.0DAVEDave Inc.QOC 8.0ENTGEntegris, Inc.QOC 8.0WFCFWhere Food Comes From, Inc.QOC 8.0LMTLockheed Martin CorporationQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MPLX · TGT · DAVE · ENTG · WFCF · LMT · NVDA

Where Does NOAH Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

NOAH is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Noah Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is Noah Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH)'s intrinsic value at $10.69 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.97 to $32.43. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOAH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.58, 3 of 5 active models suggest NOAH may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $10.69, 24.6% above the current price of $8.58 — a consensus view that NOAH is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Noah Holdings Limited's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for NOAH?

Noah Holdings Limited's QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOAH?

CirclFi analyzes NOAH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NOAH?

Of the 5 models currently active on NOAH, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $32.43 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $4.97. CirclFi's published fair value for NOAH is the median of that range, $10.69, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 257% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NOAH a value trap in 2026?

Noah Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) has a median fair value of $10.69 — 24.6% above the current price of $8.58 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NOAH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NOAH valuation
  • Financial statements: Noah Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001499543) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NOAH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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