Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Fair Value 2026

NOAH · Investment Advice ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) trades at $8.77, approximately 48% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $16.79. QOC: 7.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NOAH
Price
$8.77
Quality Score
7.7/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +296.9% upside with 41% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($8.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Medium Conviction
$16.79 +91.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$10.56 +20.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$21.37 +143.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$34.81 +296.9%

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What Is Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Noah Holdings Limited. Trading at $8.77 against an estimated intrinsic value of $19.50, 12 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +122.4% on average. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $34.81 (+296.9%), while PWERM — the most conservative — estimates $9.61 (+9.6%). This +287.3% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Noah Holdings Limited's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NOAH?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NOAH. All 12 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates NOAH's intrinsic value at $16.79, implying +91.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NOAH Rank in Investment Advice?

Among 55 Investment Advice stocks, NOAH ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.7 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Investment Advice Stocks →

Noah Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NOAH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NOAH a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Noah Holdings Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Noah Holdings Limited earns a quality score of 7.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +287.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NOAH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NOAH's 12 active models, average confidence is 34%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Noah Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Noah Holdings Limited

What is Noah Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Noah Holdings Limited (NOAH) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $16.79. The Quality of Company score is 7.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NOAH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $8.77, 12 of 12 active models suggest NOAH may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Noah Holdings Limited's business model in Investment Advice.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.7 mean for NOAH?

Noah Holdings Limited's QOC of 7.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NOAH?

CirclFi analyzes NOAH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NOAH a value trap in 2026?

Noah Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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