Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Fair Value 2026

VCTR · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (37/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) trades at $121.13, versus a $79.82 median fair value across its 6 active models — 34.1% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 37/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
VCTR
Price
$121.13
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
37/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: 6 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $79.82, 34.1% below the current price of $121.13. Estimates range from $37.27 to $130.73. VCTR scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 37/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. VCTR’s -34.1% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give VCTR?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($121.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $37.27 -69.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $85.23 -29.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $114.83 -5.2%
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What Is VCTR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $37.27 to $130.73

CirclFi's 6 active models place Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) between $37.27 and $130.73 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $79.82 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for VCTR, against a current price of $121.13.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$37.27median $79.82$130.73
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$37.27
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$130.73
Model agreement1 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for VCTR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on VCTR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $79.82, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $121.13. With 5 out of 6 models flagging downside (-34.1% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +7.9% (fair value: $130.73), while EPV is the most conservative at -69.2% ($37.27). The spread between these extremes — +77.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About VCTR?

6 of 13 models are currently active for VCTR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for VCTR is $79.82 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does VCTR Rank in Asset Management?

Among 186 Asset Management stocks, VCTR ranks #19 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is VCTR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns VCTR a score of 37/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.0/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +77.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every VCTR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across VCTR's 6 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedQOC 8.0BLKBlackRock, Inc.QOC 7.9ARESAres Management CorporationQOC 8.1CGThe Carlyle Group Inc.QOC 7.8BAMBrookfield Asset Management Ltd.QOC 8.1PAXPatria Investments LimitedQOC 7.8GSBDGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc.QOC 6.4BANXArrowMark Financial Corp.QOC 5.0SPMCSound Point Meridian Capital, Inc.QOC 3.7HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: NOAH · BLK · ARES · CG · BAM · PAX · GSBD · BANX · SPMC · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to VCTR?

7 companies across all industries closest to VCTR’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

SLBSLB N.V.QOC 8.0FNDFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0VRSNVeriSign, Inc.QOC 8.0UNFUniFirst CorporationQOC 8.0FVRRFiverr International Ltd.QOC 8.0MTLSMaterialise NVQOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SLB · FND · VRSN · UNF · FVRR · MTLS · NVDA

Where Does VCTR Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

VCTR is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR)'s intrinsic value at $79.82 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $37.27 to $130.73. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is VCTR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $121.13, 1 of 6 active models suggest VCTR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $79.82, 34.1% below the current price of $121.13 — a consensus view that VCTR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for VCTR?

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on VCTR?

CirclFi analyzes VCTR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on VCTR?

Of the 6 models currently active on VCTR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $130.73 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $37.27. CirclFi's published fair value for VCTR is the median of that range, $79.82, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is VCTR a value trap in 2026?

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 37/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. (VCTR) has a median fair value of $79.82 — 34.1% below the current price of $121.13 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/VCTR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this VCTR valuation
  • Financial statements: Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001570827) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for VCTR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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