Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Fair Value 2026

HLI · Capital Markets ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) trades at $130.81, versus a $89.89 median fair value across its 6 active models — 31.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HLI
Price
$130.81
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +2.9% upside with 53% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $89.89, 31.3% below the current price of $130.81. Estimates range from $36.03 to $178.56. HLI scores 8.7/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HLI’s -31.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Capital Markets sector median is -34.6%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HLI?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($130.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $43.04 -67.1%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $88.72 -32.2%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $134.63 +2.9%
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What Is HLI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $36.03 to $178.56

CirclFi's 6 active models place Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) between $36.03 and $178.56 per share, a spread of 159% of the median. The median of that range — $89.89 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HLI, against a current price of $130.81.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$36.03median $89.89$178.56
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$36.03
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$178.56
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HLI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HLI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Houlihan Lokey, Inc. at its current price of $130.81. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $89.89 (-31.3% vs price), with 4 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $178.56 (+36.5%), versus ML-RIV at $36.03 (-72.5%). This +109.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HLI?

6 of 13 models are currently active for HLI. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HLI is $89.89 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HLI Rank in Capital Markets?

Among 103 Capital Markets stocks, HLI ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places HLI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Capital Markets Stocks →

As a lending environment, Houlihan Lokey, Inc. operates in a sector where loan loss provisions is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating HLI should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is HLI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HLI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Houlihan Lokey, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Houlihan Lokey, Inc. is rated at 8.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +109.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HLI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HLI's 6 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Houlihan Lokey, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Capital Markets Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Capital Markets stocks with 13-model coverage

IBKRInteractive Brokers Group, Inc.QOC 9.0EVREvercore Inc.QOC 8.6SCHWThe Charles Schwab CorporationQOC 9.0SIEBSiebert Financial Corp.QOC 8.6PIPRPiper Sandler CompaniesQOC 9.1MKTXMarketAxess Holdings Inc.QOC 8.3JEFJefferies Financial Group Inc.QOC 7.0DOMHDominari Holdings Inc.QOC 5.6CSHRCoinShares PLCQOC 3.8FUTUFutu Holdings LimitedQOC 9.8HOODRobinhood Markets, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: IBKR · EVR · SCHW · SIEB · PIPR · MKTX · JEF · DOMH · CSHR · FUTU · HOOD

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HLI?

7 companies across all industries closest to HLI’s Quality of Company score of 8.7/10.

NXTNextpower Inc.QOC 8.7TYLTyler Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.7MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.7ITWIllinois Tool Works Inc.QOC 8.7NVRNVR, Inc.QOC 8.7HXLHexcel CorporationQOC 8.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NXT · TYL · MGYR · ITW · NVR · HXL · NVDA

Where Does HLI Sit in CirclFi's Capital Markets Rankings?

HLI is ranked against every other Capital Markets stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Capital Markets stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Houlihan Lokey, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Houlihan Lokey, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI)'s intrinsic value at $89.89 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $36.03 to $178.56. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HLI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $130.81, 2 of 6 active models suggest HLI may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $89.89, 31.3% below the current price of $130.81 — a consensus view that HLI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Houlihan Lokey, Inc.'s business model in Capital Markets.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for HLI?

Houlihan Lokey, Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HLI?

CirclFi analyzes HLI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HLI?

Of the 6 models currently active on HLI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $178.56 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $36.03. CirclFi's published fair value for HLI is the median of that range, $89.89, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 159% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HLI a value trap in 2026?

Houlihan Lokey, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Houlihan Lokey, Inc. (HLI) has a median fair value of $89.89 — 31.3% below the current price of $130.81 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HLI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HLI valuation
  • Financial statements: Houlihan Lokey, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001302215) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HLI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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