Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Fair Value 2026

MORN · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) trades at $195.69, versus a $149.56 median fair value across its 6 active models — 23.6% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MORN
Price
$195.69
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $149.56, 23.6% below the current price of $195.69. Estimates range from $52.52 to $479.11. MORN scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. MORN’s -23.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Morningstar, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MORN?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($195.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $52.52 -73.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $137.62 -29.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $161.49 -17.5%
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What Is MORN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $52.52 to $479.11

CirclFi's 6 active models place Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) between $52.52 and $479.11 per share, a spread of 285% of the median. The median of that range — $149.56 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for MORN, against a current price of $195.69.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$52.52median $149.56$479.11
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$52.52
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$479.11
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for MORN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on MORN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Morningstar, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $149.56. Trading at $195.69, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -23.6%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +144.8% (fair value: $479.11), while EPV is the most conservative at -73.2% ($52.52). The spread between these extremes — +218.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About MORN?

6 of 13 models are currently active for MORN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for MORN is $149.56 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MORN Rank in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges?

Among 16 Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks, MORN ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places MORN in the top tier.

The Financial Data & Stock Exchanges sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Morningstar, Inc., metrics like return on tangible equity provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is MORN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MORN a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Morningstar, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Morningstar, Inc. scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +218.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MORN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MORN's 6 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Morningstar, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Financial Data & Stock Exchanges Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Financial Data & Stock Exchanges stocks with 13-model coverage

MSCIMSCI Inc.QOC 8.6COINCoinbase Global, Inc.QOC 8.5MCOMoody's CorporationQOC 8.6NDAQNasdaq, Inc.QOC 8.4SPGIS&P Global Inc.QOC 8.8ICEIntercontinental Exchange, Inc.QOC 8.1TRUTransUnionQOC 7.8DTCXDatacentrex, Inc.QOC 5.0CMECME Group Inc.QOC 8.9CBOECboe Global Markets, Inc.QOC 9.3FDSFactSet Research Systems Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: MSCI · COIN · MCO · NDAQ · SPGI · ICE · TRU · DTCX · CME · CBOE · FDS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MORN?

7 companies across all industries closest to MORN’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

ESIElement Solutions IncQOC 8.6TRNOTerreno Realty CorporationQOC 8.6PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6TSTenaris S.A.QOC 8.6GCTGigaCloud Technology Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ESI · TRNO · PGNY · SPOK · TS · GCT · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Morningstar, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Morningstar, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Morningstar, Inc. (MORN)'s intrinsic value at $149.56 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $52.52 to $479.11. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MORN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $195.69, 2 of 6 active models suggest MORN may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $149.56, 23.6% below the current price of $195.69 — a consensus view that MORN is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Morningstar, Inc.'s business model in Financial Data & Stock Exchanges.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for MORN?

Morningstar, Inc.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MORN?

CirclFi analyzes MORN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on MORN?

Of the 6 models currently active on MORN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $479.11 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $52.52. CirclFi's published fair value for MORN is the median of that range, $149.56, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 285% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is MORN a value trap in 2026?

Morningstar, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Morningstar, Inc. (MORN) has a median fair value of $149.56 — 23.6% below the current price of $195.69 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MORN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MORN valuation
  • Financial statements: Morningstar, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001289419) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MORN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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