Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) Fair Value 2026

TCBX · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) trades at $45.09, versus a $52.68 median fair value across its 3 active models — 16.8% above the current price. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TCBX
Price
$45.09
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +45.3% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $52.68, 16.8% above the current price of $45.09. Estimates range from $44.51 to $65.50. TCBX scores 8.8/10 on fundamental quality and 22/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TCBX’s +16.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TCBX?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($45.09)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $52.68 +16.8%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $65.50 +45.3%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $44.51 -1.3%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is TCBX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $44.51 to $65.50

CirclFi's 3 active models place Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) between $44.51 and $65.50 per share, a spread of 40% of the median. The median of that range — $52.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TCBX, against a current price of $45.09.

Low · FTNNHigh · Regime Cross
$44.51median $52.68$65.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelFTNN Topology$44.51
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$65.50
Model agreement2 bullish · 0 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on TCBX. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TCBX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $52.68, suggesting a +16.8% median upside from the current price of $45.09. While 2 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 0 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $65.50 (+45.3%), versus FTNN at $44.51 (-1.3%). This +46.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TCBX?

3 of 13 models are currently active for TCBX. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TCBX is $52.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TCBX Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, TCBX ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places TCBX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Within the Banks - Regional space, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. competes in an environment where cost-to-income ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TCBX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TCBX a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. is rated at 8.8/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +46.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TCBX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TCBX's 3 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

WSFSWSFS Financial CorporationQOC 8.9ORRFOrrstown Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.8BYByline Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.9NWFLNorwood Financial Corp.QOC 8.8FXNCFirst National CorporationQOC 8.9TCBITexas Capital Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.8LOBLive Oak Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3SFBCSound Financial Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.9SHGShinhan Financial Group Co., Ltd.QOC 7.4ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: WSFS · ORRF · BY · NWFL · FXNC · TCBI · LOB · SFBC · SHG · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TCBX?

6 companies across all industries closest to TCBX’s Quality of Company score of 8.8/10.

ELTPElite Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.8OSISOSI Systems, Inc.QOC 8.8ACNAccenture plcQOC 8.8OIIOceaneering International, Inc.QOC 8.8PDPagerDuty, Inc.QOC 8.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ELTP · OSIS · ACN · OII · PD · NVDA

Where Does TCBX Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

TCBX is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX)'s intrinsic value at $52.68 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $44.51 to $65.50. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TCBX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $45.09, 2 of 3 active models suggest TCBX may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $52.68, 16.8% above the current price of $45.09 — a consensus view that TCBX is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for TCBX?

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TCBX?

CirclFi analyzes TCBX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TCBX?

Of the 3 models currently active on TCBX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $65.50 per share, and FTNN Topology is the most bearish at $44.51. CirclFi's published fair value for TCBX is the median of that range, $52.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 40% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TCBX a value trap in 2026?

Third Coast Bancshares, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. (TCBX) has a median fair value of $52.68 — 16.8% above the current price of $45.09 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TCBX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TCBX valuation
  • Financial statements: Third Coast Bancshares, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001781730) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TCBX as of ; valuations recomputed .