Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Fair Value 2026

FND · Home Improvement Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (10/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) trades at $53.00, versus a $18.65 median fair value across its 10 active models — 64.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 10/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FND
Price
$53.00
Quality Score
8.0/10
Value Trap Risk
10/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +38.1% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $18.65, 64.8% below the current price of $53.00. Estimates range from $3.45 to $73.20. FND scores 8.0/10 on fundamental quality and 10/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FND’s -64.8% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FND?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($53.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.69 -72.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $22.43 -57.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $73.20 +38.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $14.86 -72.0%
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What Is FND's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.45 to $73.20

CirclFi's 10 active models place Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) between $3.45 and $73.20 per share, a spread of 374% of the median. The median of that range — $18.65 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FND, against a current price of $53.00.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · First Chicago
$3.45median $18.65$73.20
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$3.45
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$73.20
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FND. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FND, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $18.65. Trading at its current price of $53.00, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 9 of 10 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -64.8%. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $73.20 (+38.1%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $3.45 (-93.5%). This +131.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About FND?

10 of 13 models are currently active for FND. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FND is $18.65 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FND Rank in Home Improvement Retail?

Among 6 Home Improvement Retail stocks, FND ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.0 indicates above-average quality.

The Home Improvement Retail sector introduces analytical considerations specific to consumer businesses. For Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc., metrics like brand equity index provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FND a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FND a score of 10/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.0/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +131.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FND valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FND's 10 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Home Improvement Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Home Improvement Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.QOC 8.4HDThe Home Depot, Inc.QOC 8.3LIVELive Ventures IncorporatedQOC 7.9HVTHaverty Furniture Companies, Inc.QOC 7.7TTSHTile Shop Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2

Read investment analysis: LOW · HD · LIVE · HVT · TTSH

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FND?

7 companies across all industries closest to FND’s Quality of Company score of 8.0/10.

VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0UNFUniFirst CorporationQOC 8.0DLTRDollar Tree, Inc.QOC 8.0AMTAmerican Tower CorporationQOC 8.0FVRRFiverr International Ltd.QOC 8.0UFPIUFP Industries, Inc.QOC 8.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VCTR · UNF · DLTR · AMT · FVRR · UFPI · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND)'s intrinsic value at $18.65 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $3.45 to $73.20. The Quality of Company score is 8.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FND overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $53.00, 1 of 10 active models suggest FND may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $18.65, 64.8% below the current price of $53.00 — a consensus view that FND is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Home Improvement Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.0 mean for FND?

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 8.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FND?

CirclFi analyzes FND with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FND?

Of the 10 models currently active on FND, First Chicago is the most bullish at $73.20 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $3.45. CirclFi's published fair value for FND is the median of that range, $18.65, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 374% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FND a value trap in 2026?

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 10/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) has a median fair value of $18.65 — 64.8% below the current price of $53.00 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FND/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FND valuation
  • Financial statements: Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001507079) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FND as of ; valuations recomputed .

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