Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) Fair Value 2026

TTSH · Home Improvement Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (42/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) trades at $2.51, versus a $0.67 median fair value across its 7 active models — 73.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 42/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TTSH
Price
$2.51
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
42/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 42 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $0.67, 73.4% below the current price of $2.51. Estimates range from $0.16 to $5.38. TTSH scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 42/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TTSH’s -73.4% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TTSH?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.51)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.67 -73.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.09 -56.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.16 -93.4%
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What Is TTSH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.16 to $5.38

CirclFi's 7 active models place Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) between $0.16 and $5.38 per share, a spread of 782% of the median. The median of that range — $0.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TTSH, against a current price of $2.51.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · PWERM
$0.16median $0.67$5.38
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.16
Most bullish modelPWERM$5.38
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TTSH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TTSH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. at its current price of $2.51. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $0.67 (-73.4% vs price), with 5 models flagging overvaluation risk. Model dispersion is worth noting: PWERM targets $5.38 (+114.5%), versus ML-RIV at $0.16 (-93.4%). This +207.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TTSH?

7 of 13 models are currently active for TTSH. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TTSH is $0.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TTSH Rank in Home Improvement Retail?

Among 6 Home Improvement Retail stocks, TTSH ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

Within the Home Improvement Retail space, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. competes in an environment where e-commerce penetration rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TTSH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TTSH a score of 42/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. is rated at 6.2/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +207.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TTSH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TTSH's 7 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Home Improvement Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

5 related Home Improvement Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.QOC 8.3HDThe Home Depot, Inc.QOC 8.3FNDFloor & Decor Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.0LIVELive Ventures IncorporatedQOC 7.9HVTHaverty Furniture Companies, Inc.QOC 7.7

Read investment analysis: LOW · HD · FND · LIVE · HVT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TTSH?

7 companies across all industries closest to TTSH’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

NWENorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.QOC 6.2OFIXOrthofix Medical Inc.QOC 6.2QUIKQuickLogic CorporationQOC 6.2SASeabridge Gold Inc.QOC 6.2MGNXMacroGenics, Inc.QOC 6.2NTIPNetwork-1 Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NWE · OFIX · QUIK · SA · MGNX · NTIP · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH)'s intrinsic value at $0.67 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.16 to $5.38. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TTSH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.51, 2 of 7 active models suggest TTSH may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $0.67, 73.4% below the current price of $2.51 — a consensus view that TTSH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.'s business model in Home Improvement Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for TTSH?

Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TTSH?

CirclFi analyzes TTSH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TTSH?

Of the 7 models currently active on TTSH, PWERM is the most bullish at $5.38 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.16. CirclFi's published fair value for TTSH is the median of that range, $0.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 782% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TTSH a value trap in 2026?

Tile Shop Holdings, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 42/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. (TTSH) has a median fair value of $0.67 — 73.4% below the current price of $2.51 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TTSH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TTSH valuation
  • Financial statements: Tile Shop Holdings, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001552800) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TTSH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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