NextPlat Corp (NXPL) Fair Value 2026

NXPL · Software - Application ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, NextPlat Corp (NXPL) trades at $9.26, versus a $18.42 median fair value across its 3 active models — 98.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NXPL
Price
$9.26
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +152.7% upside with 7% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (3/13) may reduce confidence

Is NextPlat Corp (NXPL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, NextPlat Corp (NXPL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $18.42, 98.9% above the current price of $9.26. Estimates range from $7.02 to $23.40. NXPL scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. NXPL’s +98.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Application sector median is -25.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy NextPlat Corp Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NXPL?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.26)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $7.02 -24.2%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $18.42 +98.9%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $23.40 +152.7%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is NXPL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $7.02 to $23.40

CirclFi's 3 active models place NextPlat Corp (NXPL) between $7.02 and $23.40 per share, a spread of 89% of the median. The median of that range — $18.42 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NXPL, against a current price of $9.26.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$7.02median $18.42$23.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$7.02
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$23.40
Model agreement2 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NXPL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is NextPlat Corp (NXPL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NextPlat Corp's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $18.42. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $9.26 (implied upside of +98.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 2 of 3 bullish models. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +152.7% (fair value: $23.40), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -24.2% ($7.02). The spread between these extremes — +177.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NXPL?

3 of 13 models are currently active for NXPL. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NXPL is $18.42 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NXPL Rank in Software - Application?

Among 263 Software - Application stocks, NXPL ranks #162 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Application Stocks →

The Software - Application sector introduces analytical considerations specific to software business businesses. For NextPlat Corp, metrics like free cash flow margin provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NXPL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NXPL a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for NextPlat Corp. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, NextPlat Corp scores 6.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +177.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NXPL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NXPL's 3 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy NextPlat Corp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Application Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Application stocks with 13-model coverage

VIAVia Transportation, Inc.QOC 6.1CHYMChime Financial, Inc.QOC 6.0NAVNNavan, Inc.QOC 6.1VSVersus Systems Inc.QOC 6.0SMRTSmartRent, Inc.QOC 6.1ORKTOrangekloud Technology Inc.QOC 6.0HODOHouse of Doge Inc.QOC 4.0DCBODocebo Inc.QOC 9.0IBTAIbotta, Inc.QOC 7.4ADSKAutodesk, Inc.QOC 9.9PTCPTC Inc.QOC 9.8

Read investment analysis: VIA · CHYM · NAVN · VS · SMRT · ORKT · HODO · DCBO · IBTA · ADSK · PTC

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NXPL?

7 companies across all industries closest to NXPL’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

VODVodafone Group Public Limited CompanyQOC 6.1NMTCNeuroOne Medical Technologies CorporationQOC 6.1IORIncome Opportunity Realty Investors, Inc.QOC 6.1SIDCompanhia Siderúrgica NacionalQOC 6.0SUGPSU Group Holdings LimitedQOC 6.1CHGGChegg, Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VOD · NMTC · IOR · SID · SUGP · CHGG · NVDA

Where Does NXPL Sit in CirclFi's Software - Application Rankings?

NXPL is ranked against every other Software - Application stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Application stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About NextPlat Corp’s Valuation?

What is NextPlat Corp's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts NextPlat Corp (NXPL)'s intrinsic value at $18.42 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $7.02 to $23.40. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NXPL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.26, 2 of 3 active models suggest NXPL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $18.42, 98.9% above the current price of $9.26 — a consensus view that NXPL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits NextPlat Corp's business model in Software - Application.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for NXPL?

NextPlat Corp's QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NXPL?

CirclFi analyzes NXPL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NXPL?

Of the 3 models currently active on NXPL, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $23.40 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $7.02. CirclFi's published fair value for NXPL is the median of that range, $18.42, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 89% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NXPL a value trap in 2026?

NextPlat Corp's Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, NextPlat Corp (NXPL) has a median fair value of $18.42 — 98.9% above the current price of $9.26 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NXPL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NXPL valuation
  • Financial statements: NextPlat Corp 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001058307) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NXPL as of ; valuations recomputed .