Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) Fair Value 2026

TDS · Telecom Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (31/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) trades at $33.15, versus a $21.74 median fair value across its 10 active models — 34.4% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 31/100 (LOW). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $16.67.

Key Facts

Ticker
TDS
Price
$33.15
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
31/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +97.5% upside with 51% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $21.74, 34.4% below the current price of $33.15. Estimates range from $1.81 to $65.48. TDS scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 31/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. TDS’s -34.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Telecom Services sector median is +30.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TDS?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($33.15)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $16.67 -49.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $26.81 -19.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.95 -76.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $65.48 +97.5%
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What Is TDS's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $1.81 to $65.48

CirclFi's 10 active models place Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) between $1.81 and $65.48 per share, a spread of 293% of the median. The median of that range — $21.74 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TDS, against a current price of $33.15.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · ML-RIV
$1.81median $21.74$65.48
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$1.81
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$65.48
Model agreement3 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TDS. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TDS, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. at its current price of $33.15. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $21.74 (-34.4% vs price), with 6 models flagging overvaluation risk. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +97.5% (fair value: $65.48), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -94.5% ($1.81). The spread between these extremes — +192.1% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About TDS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TDS. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TDS is $21.74 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $16.67 on its own, implying -49.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TDS Rank in Telecom Services?

Among 55 Telecom Services stocks, TDS ranks #28 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Telecom Services Stocks →

Within the Telecom Services space, Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. competes in an environment where spectrum holdings value often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TDS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TDS a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +192.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TDS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TDS's 10 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Telecom Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Telecom Services stocks with 13-model coverage

KVHIKVH Industries, Inc.QOC 6.5SIFYSify Technologies LimitedQOC 6.3KTKT CorporationQOC 6.7LILALiberty Latin America Ltd.QOC 6.2PHIPLDT Inc.QOC 6.8ECHOEchoStar CorporationQOC 6.1CCOICogent Communications Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8VEONVEON Ltd.QOC 2.6SKMSK Telecom Co., Ltd.QOC 7.6IRDMIridium Communications Inc.QOC 8.7IDTIDT CorporationQOC 8.6

Read investment analysis: KVHI · SIFY · KT · LILA · PHI · ECHO · CCOI · VEON · SKM · IRDM · IDT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TDS?

7 companies across all industries closest to TDS’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

AVALGrupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.QOC 6.4KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.QOC 6.4AWHLAspira Women's Health Inc.QOC 6.4SFLSFL Corporation Ltd.QOC 6.4SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4TCRXTScan Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AVAL · KRO · AWHL · SFL · SXC · TCRX · NVDA

Where Does TDS Sit in CirclFi's Telecom Services Rankings?

TDS is ranked against every other Telecom Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Telecom Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS)'s intrinsic value at $21.74 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $1.81 to $65.48. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $16.67 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TDS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $33.15, 3 of 10 active models suggest TDS may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $21.74, 34.4% below the current price of $33.15 — a consensus view that TDS is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.'s business model in Telecom Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for TDS?

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TDS?

CirclFi analyzes TDS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TDS?

Of the 10 models currently active on TDS, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $65.48 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $1.81. CirclFi's published fair value for TDS is the median of that range, $21.74, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 293% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TDS a value trap in 2026?

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 31/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS) has a median fair value of $21.74 — 34.4% below the current price of $33.15 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TDS/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TDS valuation
  • Financial statements: Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001051512) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TDS as of ; valuations recomputed .

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