Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) Fair Value 2026

AVAL · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (11/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) trades at $5.24, versus a $6.10 median fair value across its 6 active models — 16.5% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 11/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AVAL
Price
$5.24
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
11/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +30.3% upside with 54% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (6/13) may reduce confidence

Is Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $6.10, 16.5% above the current price of $5.24. Estimates range from $3.37 to $8.09. AVAL scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 11/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. AVAL’s +16.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -21.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AVAL?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.24)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.83 +30.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.90 +12.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $3.37 -35.6%
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What Is AVAL's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $3.37 to $8.09

CirclFi's 6 active models place Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) between $3.37 and $8.09 per share, a spread of 77% of the median. The median of that range — $6.10 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AVAL, against a current price of $5.24.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$3.37median $6.10$8.09
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$3.37
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$8.09
Model agreement5 bullish · 1 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AVAL, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $6.10. At a current market price of $5.24, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +16.5%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +54.4% (fair value: $8.09), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -35.6% ($3.37). The spread between these extremes — +90.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AVAL?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AVAL. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AVAL is $6.10 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AVAL Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, AVAL ranks #326 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including digital banking adoption — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AVAL a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AVAL a score of 11/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. earns a quality score of 6.4/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AVAL valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AVAL's 6 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

KBKB Financial Group Inc.QOC 6.4FLGFlagstar Bank, National AssociationQOC 6.4FNWBFirst Northwest BancorpQOC 6.4FSEAFirst Seacoast Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2FBLAFB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.5AVBCAvidia Bancorp, Inc.QOC 6.2RVRFRiver Financial CorporationQOC 8.5UNBUnion Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.1BOKFBOK Financial CorporationQOC 7.7STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: KB · FLG · FNWB · FSEA · FBLA · AVBC · RVRF · UNB · BOKF · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AVAL?

7 companies across all industries closest to AVAL’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

AWHLAspira Women's Health Inc.QOC 6.4TRSGTungray Technologies Inc.QOC 6.4IONSIonis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 6.4TDSTelephone and Data Systems, Inc.QOC 6.4SXCSunCoke Energy, Inc.QOC 6.4KROKronos Worldwide, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: AWHL · TRSG · IONS · TDS · SXC · KRO · NVDA

Where Does AVAL Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

AVAL is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL)'s intrinsic value at $6.10 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $3.37 to $8.09. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AVAL overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.24, 5 of 6 active models suggest AVAL may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $6.10, 16.5% above the current price of $5.24 — a consensus view that AVAL is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for AVAL?

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AVAL?

CirclFi analyzes AVAL with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AVAL?

Of the 6 models currently active on AVAL, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $8.09 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $3.37. CirclFi's published fair value for AVAL is the median of that range, $6.10, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 77% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AVAL a value trap in 2026?

Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A.'s Value Trap score is 11/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. (AVAL) has a median fair value of $6.10 — 16.5% above the current price of $5.24 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AVAL/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AVAL valuation
  • Financial statements: Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001504764) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AVAL as of ; valuations recomputed .

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