Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) Fair Value 2026

NTB · Commercial Banks, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) trades at $60.53, approximately 67% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $185.37. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NTB
Price
$60.53
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +206.3% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($60.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $185.37 +206.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $42.22 -30.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $95.08 +57.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $118.15 +95.2%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son . Trading at $60.53 against an estimated intrinsic value of $102.90, 9 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +70.0% on average. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $208.78 (+244.9%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $42.22 (-30.2%). This +275.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son 's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NTB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NTB. Of these, 9 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NTB's intrinsic value at $185.37, implying +206.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NTB Rank in Commercial Banks, NEC?

Among 33 Commercial Banks, NEC stocks, NTB ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places NTB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks →

The Commercial Banks, NEC sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son , metrics like CET1 capital ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NTB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NTB a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son . Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son earns a quality score of 8.7/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +275.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NTB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NTB's 12 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Commercial Banks, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, IncQOC 9.7INTRInter & Co. Inc.QOC 9.4BMABanco Macro S.A.QOC 8.9GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.8HDBHDFC Bank LimitedQOC 8.7VBNKVersaBankQOC 8.5SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A.QOC 8.4RYRoyal Bank Of CanadaQOC 8.4

Read investment analysis: ESQ · INTR · BMA · GGAL · HDB

See all Commercial Banks, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son

What is Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son 's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $185.37. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NTB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $60.53, 9 of 12 active models suggest NTB may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son 's business model in Commercial Banks, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for NTB?

Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son 's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NTB?

CirclFi analyzes NTB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NTB a value trap in 2026?

Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son 's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on NTB.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access