Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Fair Value 2026

BBVA · Banks - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-31, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) trades at $28.96, versus a $33.68 median fair value across its 5 active models — 16.3% above the current price. QOC: 8.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BBVA
Price
$28.96
Quality Score
8.9/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +16.4% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $33.68, 16.3% above the current price of $28.96. Estimates range from $29.06 to $38.10. BBVA scores 8.9/10 on fundamental quality and 30/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,804 rated companies as of 2026-08-31. BBVA’s +16.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Diversified sector median is -10.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BBVA?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($28.96)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $32.62 +12.6%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $33.70 +16.4%
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What Is BBVA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $29.06 to $38.10

CirclFi's 5 active models place Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) between $29.06 and $38.10 per share, a spread of 27% of the median. The median of that range — $33.68 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BBVA, against a current price of $28.96.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$29.06median $33.68$38.10
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$29.06
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$38.10
Model agreement4 bullish · 0 bearishtight

The methods largely agree on BBVA. A band this narrow usually means stable, predictable cash flows that every approach reads the same way, and it is the strongest form of confirmation this engine can produce.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BBVA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $33.68. At a current market price of $28.96, 4 of 5 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +16.3%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +31.6% (fair value: $38.10), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at +0.4% ($29.06). The spread between these extremes — +31.2% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BBVA?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BBVA. All 5 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for BBVA is $33.68 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BBVA Rank in Banks - Diversified?

Among 20 Banks - Diversified stocks, BBVA ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.9 places BBVA in the top tier.

As a financial institution, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. operates in a sector where CET1 capital ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BBVA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BBVA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BBVA a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.9/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +31.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BBVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BBVA's 5 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Banks - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

HSBCHSBC Holdings plcQOC 2.6CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6UBSUBS Group AGQOC 2.9NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedQOC 8.5FRBTForbright, Inc.QOC 4.9RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3MUFGMitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.QOC 7.9SANBanco Santander, S.A.QOC 7.1

Read investment analysis: HSBC · CM · UBS · NTB · FRBT · RY · WFC · MUFG · SAN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BBVA?

7 companies across all industries closest to BBVA’s Quality of Company score of 8.9/10.

ADUSAddus HomeCare CorporationQOC 8.9ACELAccel Entertainment, Inc.QOC 8.9ATRAptarGroup, Inc.QOC 8.9BXBlackstone Inc.QOC 8.9DUOLDuolingo, Inc.QOC 8.9COSTCostco Wholesale CorporationQOC 8.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ADUS · ACEL · ATR · BX · DUOL · COST · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA)'s intrinsic value at $33.68 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-31, ranging from $29.06 to $38.10. The Quality of Company score is 8.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BBVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $28.96, 5 of 5 active models suggest BBVA may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $33.68, 16.3% above the current price of $28.96 — a consensus view that BBVA is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s business model in Banks - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.9 mean for BBVA?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s QOC of 8.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BBVA?

CirclFi analyzes BBVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BBVA?

Of the 5 models currently active on BBVA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $38.10 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $29.06. CirclFi's published fair value for BBVA is the median of that range, $33.68, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 27% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BBVA a value trap in 2026?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (BBVA) has a median fair value of $33.68 — 16.3% above the current price of $28.96 — as of 2026-08-31.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BBVA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BBVA valuation

Market data for BBVA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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