Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Fair Value 2026

BBVA · Commercial Banks, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) trades at $25.53, approximately 177% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $9.21. QOC: 2.3/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BBVA
Price
$25.53
Quality Score
2.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +55.3% upside with 0% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.3/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $23.70, within 7.2% of the current price of $25.53. Estimates range from $5.49 to $120.89. BBVA scores 2.3/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$9.21 -63.9%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$8.56 -66.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$39.66 +55.3%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$25.15 -1.5%

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What Is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's intrinsic value is estimated at $28.15, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $25.53. With an average implied return of +10.3% across a split 4–6 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +452.0% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Markov DDM sees the most upside at +373.5% (fair value: $120.89), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -78.5% ($5.49). The spread between these extremes — +452.0% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BBVA?

12 of 13 models are currently active for BBVA. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BBVA's intrinsic value at $9.21, implying -63.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BBVA Rank in Commercial Banks, NEC?

Among 32 Commercial Banks, NEC stocks, BBVA ranks #23 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.3 signals below-average fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks →

As a financial institution, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria operates in a sector where CET1 capital ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating BBVA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is BBVA a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BBVA. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's fundamental quality profile registers 2.3/10. This concerning score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +452.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BBVA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BBVA's 12 active models, average confidence is 8%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Commercial Banks, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: ESQ · INTR · BMA · GGAL · HDB

See all Commercial Banks, NEC stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria

What is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $9.21. The Quality of Company score is 2.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BBVA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.53, 4 of 12 active models suggest BBVA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $23.70, within 7.2% of the current price of $25.53 — a consensus view that BBVA is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's business model in Commercial Banks, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.3 mean for BBVA?

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's QOC of 2.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BBVA?

CirclFi analyzes BBVA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BBVA a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for BBVA at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) has a median fair value of $23.70 — within 7.2% of the current price of $25.53 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BBVA/ · Methodology

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