Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Fair Value 2026

BMA · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) trades at $76.87, versus a $73.58 median fair value across its 3 active models — 4.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BMA
Price
$76.87
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +71.5% upside with 10% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $73.58, within 4.3% of the current price of $76.87. Estimates range from $28.56 to $131.82. BMA scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BMA’s -4.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Banco Macro S.A. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BMA?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($76.87)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $73.58 -4.3%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $28.56 -62.9%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $131.82 +71.5%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is BMA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $28.56 to $131.82

CirclFi's 3 active models place Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) between $28.56 and $131.82 per share, a spread of 140% of the median. The median of that range — $73.58 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BMA, against a current price of $76.87.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · FTNN
$28.56median $73.58$131.82
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$28.56
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$131.82
Model agreement1 bullish · 1 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BMA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BMA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Banco Macro S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $73.58, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $76.87. With a median implied return of -4.3% across a split 1–1 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +134.3% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +71.5% (fair value: $131.82), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -62.9% ($28.56). The spread between these extremes — +134.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About BMA?

3 of 13 models are currently active for BMA. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BMA is $73.58 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BMA Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 349 Banks - Regional stocks, BMA ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places BMA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Banco Macro S.A.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BMA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BMA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Banco Macro S.A.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Banco Macro S.A. scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +134.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BMA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BMA's 3 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Banco Macro S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

UVSPUnivest Financial CorporationQOC 8.7BSVNBank7 Corp.QOC 8.6MGYRMagyar Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.7SRCE1st Source CorporationQOC 8.6CFGCitizens Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.7FCBCFirst Community Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.6RRBIRed River Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.2EMYBEmbassy Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.8MCHBMechanics BancorpQOC 7.1ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1PEBOPeoples Bancorp Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: UVSP · BSVN · MGYR · SRCE · CFG · FCBC · RRBI · EMYB · MCHB · ESQ · PEBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BMA?

7 companies across all industries closest to BMA’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

TMUST-Mobile US, Inc.QOC 8.6RDVTRed Violet, Inc.QOC 8.6GEGE AerospaceQOC 8.6LVSLas Vegas Sands Corp.QOC 8.6VICIVICI Properties Inc.QOC 8.6CTRECareTrust REIT, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TMUS · RDVT · GE · LVS · VICI · CTRE · NVDA

Where Does BMA Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

BMA is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Banco Macro S.A.’s Valuation?

What is Banco Macro S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Banco Macro S.A. (BMA)'s intrinsic value at $73.58 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $28.56 to $131.82. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BMA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $76.87, 1 of 3 active models suggest BMA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $73.58, within 4.3% of the current price of $76.87 — a consensus view that BMA is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Banco Macro S.A.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for BMA?

Banco Macro S.A.'s QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BMA?

CirclFi analyzes BMA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BMA?

Of the 3 models currently active on BMA, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $131.82 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $28.56. CirclFi's published fair value for BMA is the median of that range, $73.58, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 140% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BMA a value trap in 2026?

Banco Macro S.A.'s Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) has a median fair value of $73.58 — within 4.3% of the current price of $76.87 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BMA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BMA valuation
  • Financial statements: Banco Macro S.A. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001347426) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BMA as of ; valuations recomputed .