Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Fair Value 2026

RY · Banks - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Royal Bank of Canada (RY) trades at $204.54, versus a $171.00 median fair value across its 5 active models — 16.4% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RY
Price
$204.54
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.4/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Royal Bank of Canada (RY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $171.00, 16.4% below the current price of $204.54. Estimates range from $83.98 to $346.78. RY scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. RY’s -16.4% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Diversified sector median is -8.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Royal Bank of Canada Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give RY?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($204.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $83.98 -58.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $171.00 -16.4%
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What Is RY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $83.98 to $346.78

CirclFi's 5 active models place Royal Bank of Canada (RY) between $83.98 and $346.78 per share, a spread of 154% of the median. The median of that range — $171.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for RY, against a current price of $204.54.

Low · EPVHigh · Regime Cross
$83.98median $171.00$346.78
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$83.98
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$346.78
Model agreement2 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for RY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on RY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Royal Bank of Canada (RY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the balance of valuation evidence tilts cautious on Royal Bank of Canada at its current price of $204.54. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $171.00 (-16.4% vs price), with 3 models flagging overvaluation risk. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $346.78 (+69.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $83.98 (-58.9%). This +128.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Royal Bank of Canada's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About RY?

5 of 13 models are currently active for RY. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for RY is $171.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RY Rank in Banks - Diversified?

Among 20 Banks - Diversified stocks, RY ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places RY in the top tier.

As a banking sector, Royal Bank of Canada operates in a sector where cost-to-income ratio is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating RY should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is RY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RY a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Royal Bank of Canada. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Royal Bank of Canada's fundamental quality profile registers 8.4/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +128.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RY's 5 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Royal Bank of Canada Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Banks - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedQOC 8.5BMOBank of MontrealQOC 8.3CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.QOC 8.9BCSBarclays PLCQOC 8.2BNYThe Bank of New York Mellon CorporationQOC 8.1TDThe Toronto-Dominion BankQOC 7.4UBSUBS Group AGQOC 2.9

Read investment analysis: NTB · BMO · CM · WFC · BBVA · BCS · BNY · TD · UBS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to RY?

7 companies across all industries closest to RY’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

ENPHEnphase Energy, Inc.QOC 8.4MMYTMakeMyTrip LimitedQOC 8.4CSBBCSB Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.4FIVNFive9, Inc.QOC 8.4GTXGarrett Motion Inc.QOC 8.4NATHNathan's Famous, Inc.QOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ENPH · MMYT · CSBB · FIVN · GTX · NATH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Royal Bank of Canada’s Valuation?

What is Royal Bank of Canada's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Royal Bank of Canada (RY)'s intrinsic value at $171.00 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $83.98 to $346.78. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $204.54, 2 of 5 active models suggest RY may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $171.00, 16.4% below the current price of $204.54 — a consensus view that RY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Royal Bank of Canada's business model in Banks - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for RY?

Royal Bank of Canada's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RY?

CirclFi analyzes RY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on RY?

Of the 5 models currently active on RY, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $346.78 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $83.98. CirclFi's published fair value for RY is the median of that range, $171.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 154% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is RY a value trap in 2026?

Royal Bank of Canada's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Royal Bank of Canada (RY) has a median fair value of $171.00 — 16.4% below the current price of $204.54 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/RY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this RY valuation
  • Financial statements: Royal Bank of Canada 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001000275) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for RY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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