HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) Fair Value 2026

HDB · Commercial Banks, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) trades at $26.41, approximately 55% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $58.39. QOC: 8.7/10. 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HDB
Price
$26.41
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +121.1% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.41)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$58.39 +121.1%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$10.22 -61.3%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$22.34 -15.4%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$17.34 -34.3%

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What Is HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HDFC Bank Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $26.03. Trading at $26.41, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -1.4%), as 8 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $78.78 (+198.3%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $1.75 (-93.4%). This +291.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HDB?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HDB. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HDB's intrinsic value at $58.39, implying +121.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HDB Rank in Commercial Banks, NEC?

Among 33 Commercial Banks, NEC stocks, HDB ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places HDB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks →

HDFC Bank Limited's positioning within the Commercial Banks, NEC segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HDB a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for HDB. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for HDFC Bank Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HDFC Bank Limited scores 8.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +291.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HDB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HDB's 12 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HDFC Bank Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Commercial Banks, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Commercial Banks, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About HDFC Bank Limited

What is HDFC Bank Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $58.39. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HDB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.41, 3 of 12 active models suggest HDB may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HDFC Bank Limited's business model in Commercial Banks, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for HDB?

HDFC Bank Limited's QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HDB?

CirclFi analyzes HDB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HDB a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for HDB at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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