HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) Fair Value 2026

HDB · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) trades at $22.42, versus a $11.37 median fair value across its 3 active models — 49.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HDB
Price
$22.42
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +18.5% upside with 37% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $11.37, 49.3% below the current price of $22.42. Estimates range from $9.29 to $26.57. HDB scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. HDB’s -49.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -21.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy HDFC Bank Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HDB?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($22.42)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.29 -58.6%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $26.57 +18.5%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $11.37 -49.3%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is HDB's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $9.29 to $26.57

CirclFi's 3 active models place HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) between $9.29 and $26.57 per share, a spread of 152% of the median. The median of that range — $11.37 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HDB, against a current price of $22.42.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$9.29median $11.37$26.57
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$9.29
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$26.57
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HDB. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HDB, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HDFC Bank Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $11.37. Trading at $22.42, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -49.3%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $26.57 (+18.5%), versus Markov DDM at $9.29 (-58.6%). This +77.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About HDB?

3 of 13 models are currently active for HDB. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HDB is $11.37 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HDB Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, HDB ranks #145 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places HDB in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

HDFC Bank Limited's positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that cost-to-income ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including fee income diversification — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is HDB a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HDB a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for HDFC Bank Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, HDFC Bank Limited scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +77.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HDB valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HDB's 3 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy HDFC Bank Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.QOC 8.2CBCCentral Bancompany, Inc.QOC 8.1SBFGSB Financial Group, Inc.QOC 8.2NPBNorthpointe Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.1CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2ABCBAmeris BancorpQOC 8.1BHRBBurke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.QOC 7.8KFFBKentucky First Federal BancorpQOC 6.6CCNECNB Financial CorporationQOC 8.5STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: GGAL · CBC · SBFG · NPB · CUBI · ABCB · BHRB · KFFB · CCNE · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HDB?

7 companies across all industries closest to HDB’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

RCLRoyal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.QOC 8.2PENGPenguin Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.2KROSKeros Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 8.2SGUStar Group, L.P.QOC 8.2RBARB Global, Inc.QOC 8.2SEBSeaboard CorporationQOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RCL · PENG · KROS · SGU · RBA · SEB · NVDA

Where Does HDB Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

HDB is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About HDFC Bank Limited’s Valuation?

What is HDFC Bank Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts HDFC Bank Limited (HDB)'s intrinsic value at $11.37 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $9.29 to $26.57. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HDB overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $22.42, 1 of 3 active models suggest HDB may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $11.37, 49.3% below the current price of $22.42 — a consensus view that HDB is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits HDFC Bank Limited's business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for HDB?

HDFC Bank Limited's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HDB?

CirclFi analyzes HDB with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HDB?

Of the 3 models currently active on HDB, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $26.57 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $9.29. CirclFi's published fair value for HDB is the median of that range, $11.37, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 152% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HDB a value trap in 2026?

HDFC Bank Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, HDFC Bank Limited (HDB) has a median fair value of $11.37 — 49.3% below the current price of $22.42 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HDB/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HDB valuation
  • Financial statements: HDFC Bank Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001144967) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HDB as of ; valuations recomputed .