Bank of Montreal (BMO) Fair Value 2026

BMO · Banks - Diversified ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Bank of Montreal (BMO) trades at $172.13, versus a $92.39 median fair value across its 6 active models — 46.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BMO
Price
$172.13
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Bank of Montreal (BMO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Bank of Montreal (BMO) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $92.39, 46.3% below the current price of $172.13. Estimates range from $74.20 to $324.18. BMO scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BMO’s -46.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Diversified sector median is -8.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Bank of Montreal Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BMO?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($172.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $79.79 -53.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $99.28 -42.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $74.20 -56.9%
Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 3 additional models including ML-RIV, Regime Cross-Sectional, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 6 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is BMO's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $74.20 to $324.18

CirclFi's 6 active models place Bank of Montreal (BMO) between $74.20 and $324.18 per share, a spread of 271% of the median. The median of that range — $92.39 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BMO, against a current price of $172.13.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$74.20median $92.39$324.18
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$74.20
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$324.18
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BMO. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BMO, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Bank of Montreal (BMO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Bank of Montreal's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $92.39. Trading at $172.13, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -46.3%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $324.18 (+88.3%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $74.20 (-56.9%). This +145.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Bank of Montreal's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About BMO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for BMO. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BMO is $92.39 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BMO Rank in Banks - Diversified?

Among 20 Banks - Diversified stocks, BMO ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places BMO in the top tier.

The Banks - Diversified sector introduces analytical considerations specific to banking businesses. For Bank of Montreal, metrics like cost-to-income ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BMO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BMO a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Bank of Montreal. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Bank of Montreal earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +145.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BMO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BMO's 6 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Bank of Montreal Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Diversified Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Banks - Diversified stocks with 13-model coverage

RYRoyal Bank of CanadaQOC 8.4WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3NTBThe Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son LimitedQOC 8.5BCSBarclays PLCQOC 8.2CMCanadian Imperial Bank of CommerceQOC 8.6JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.QOC 8.1BACBank of America CorporationQOC 8.0BNSThe Bank of Nova ScotiaQOC 7.2HSBCHSBC Holdings plcQOC 2.6BBVABanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: RY · WFC · NTB · BCS · CM · JPM · BAC · BNS · HSBC · BBVA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BMO?

7 companies across all industries closest to BMO’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

OLLIOllie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.3HAEHaemonetics CorporationQOC 8.3TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3ERICTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (publ)QOC 8.3MGRCMcGrath RentCorpQOC 8.3NUENucor CorporationQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OLLI · HAE · TXT · ERIC · MGRC · NUE · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Bank of Montreal’s Valuation?

What is Bank of Montreal's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Bank of Montreal (BMO)'s intrinsic value at $92.39 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $74.20 to $324.18. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BMO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $172.13, 2 of 6 active models suggest BMO may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $92.39, 46.3% below the current price of $172.13 — a consensus view that BMO is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Bank of Montreal's business model in Banks - Diversified.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for BMO?

Bank of Montreal's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BMO?

CirclFi analyzes BMO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BMO?

Of the 6 models currently active on BMO, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $324.18 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $74.20. CirclFi's published fair value for BMO is the median of that range, $92.39, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 271% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BMO a value trap in 2026?

Bank of Montreal's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Bank of Montreal (BMO) has a median fair value of $92.39 — 46.3% below the current price of $172.13 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BMO/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BMO valuation
  • Financial statements: Bank of Montreal 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000927971) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BMO as of ; valuations recomputed .

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 6 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on BMO.

Unlock All 6 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access

3 models hidden for BMO Unlock All 6 — $39/mo